GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · · 18:45
versus

Marseille
Strasbourg

CEPAC Vélodrome · Referee r-buquet
40
Full time
71%
Both teams to score
MA42
Draw24
ST34
Why
Marseille's attack sits at the 86th percentile of the league
Marseille takes 2 points per game at home, the opponent 1.29 away
Strasbourg has 4 declared absences
What could fool us
Marseille has 6 declared absences
6 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Marseille at 42%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

MARMAR
STRSTR
CEPAC Vélodrome
40
Full time

Final result

i
Refuted71%Both teams to score · announced before kick-off
42%
Win MAR
what happened
24%
Draw
34%
Win STR
55%at opening42%at kick-off13 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Why

  • Marseille's attack sits at the 86th percentile of the league
  • Marseille takes 2 points per game at home, the opponent 1.29 away
  • Strasbourg has 4 declared absences

What could mislead us

  • Marseille has 6 declared absences
  • 6 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
1X2Strength 89/100
Home win
Model
42%
Market
55%
Divergence
-13

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 42%, the market at 55%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

2 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
r-buquet
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 21
#TeamPGDFormPts
2ASMMonaco21+14
WWLDW
0
3OMMarseille21+14
WLWDW
0
4LOSCLille21+10
WDWWL
0

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Marseille at 42%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions