GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · — · 18:45
versus

Marseille
Strasbourg

CEPAC Vélodrome · Referee r-buquet
4 – 0
Full time
71%
Both teams to score
MA42
Draw24
ST34
Head to head
1
MAR
6
Draw
1
STR
févr. 2026MAR — STR2 – 2
sept. 2025STR — MAR1 – 2
janv. 2025MAR — STR1 – 1
sept. 2024STR — MAR1 – 0
janv. 2024MAR — STR1 – 1
nov. 2023STR — MAR1 – 1
mars 2023MAR — STR2 – 2
oct. 2022STR — MAR2 – 2

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

How the analysis moved
21/08 05h42%—
Our past analyses in this competition
1x2 · announced at 46%0,29Confirmed
1x2 · announced at 50%0,25Confirmed
1x2 · announced at 47%0,22Refuted
1x2 · announced at 46%0,21Refuted
1x2 · announced at 58%0,34Refuted
1x2 · announced at 56%0,31Refuted

Every resolved analysis stays on display with the probability it carried, confirmed or refuted.

Competition standings
1Paris Saint-Germain8247+29
2AS Monaco7441+14
3Olympique de Marseille7639+14
4LOSC Lille7236+10
5Olympique Lyonnais7133+5
Ligue 1 · 20:45
MARMAR
STRSTR
CEPAC Vélodrome
4 – 0
Full time

Final result

i
Refuted✕71%Both teams to score · announced before kick-off
42%
Win MAR
what happened
24%
Draw
34%
Win STR
55%at opening→42%at kick-off−13 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Time Machine

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What changed?

()
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Evolution over time

i
MA winDrawST win

Snapshot ledger

i
SnapshotPrediction IDModel versionData qualityConfidence
21/08 05hprd_20260821_af-1552733_210805hv1.9.354%46%

What would have to change

i26.3 pt span
Leading box presence absent42 → 16.8-25.2
Red card42 → 20.9-21.1
Key substitution42 → 38.8-3.2
Opponent scores first42 → 39.2-2.8
High tempo42 → 43.1+1.1
Low tempo42 → 41.1-0.9
Early goal42 → 420

No single change reverses the lean, which is what makes the headline probability worth reading.

Scenario library

i

Head to head

i
1
MA wins
6
Draws
1
ST wins
14 Feb 2026MAR — STR2 – 2
26 Sept 2025STR — MAR1 – 2
19 Jan 2025MAR — STR1 – 1
29 Sept 2024STR — MAR1 – 0
12 Jan 2024MAR — STR1 – 1
25 Nov 2023STR — MAR1 – 1
12 Mar 2023MAR — STR2 – 2
29 Oct 2022STR — MAR2 – 2

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

Similar matches(past meetings, as the registry holds them)

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Notes

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