What does 61% mean?Basics
Out of a hundred fixtures shown at 61%, the side wins about sixty-one. The other thirty-nine are part of the figure, not a failure of it.
xG · expected goalsStatistic
Each shot is scored by where it was taken, its angle and the situation. The sum tells you whether a side was lucky or wasteful, not how well it played.
Dangerous attacksStatistic
An attacking sequence that enters the final third while progressing. A better indicator of chances than possession.
Model / market gapMarket
The distance between our probability and the one contained in the margin-free price. A disagreement between two estimates, never an instruction.
Confirmed analysisVerification
The outcome the model judged most likely is the one that happened. It is not a won bet, and a denied analysis is not a mistake.
CalibrationModel
We group every analysis stated at 70% and count: if the event happens 70% of the time, the model is calibrated. That is the only honest test.
A question about one specific figure?
From any match sheet, the share button attaches the computation id to your message, so the answer can point at the exact number you were looking at.