GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🇦🇷 Liga Profesional Argentina · — · 00:00
versus

Huracan
Deportivo Riestra

— · Referee f-tello
0 – 0
63:00
79%
Under 2.5 goals
HU32
Draw37
DE31
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,18Raw implied probability45,9%Sum of the 1X2 book105,5%Operator margin removed−5,5 ptsDe-margined consensus43%Our model31.7%Measured gap−11.3 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 50
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home under 1.0 goals—70.8%50%+20.8
Home over 1.0 goals—29.3%50%−20.7
Home draw no bet—50.7%66%−15.3
Away draw no bet—49.3%34%+15.3
Away clean sheet—45.4%31%+14.4
Draw or away—68.3%55%+13.3
Home over 1.5 goals—18.8%32%−13.2
Home under 1.5 goals—81.2%68%+13.2
Home over 0.5 goals—54.6%66%−11.4
Home under 0.5 goals—45.4%34%+11.4
Home win—31.7%43%−11.3
Over 2.0 goals—28.1%39%−10.9

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

argentina-lpf · 02:0063'
HURHUR
DEPDEP
—
0 – 0
63:00

Live intelligence

i63'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 0–0, 63'
17%
HU win
66%
Draw
17%
DE win
▼-15ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO63'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 60'Yellow Card DEPM. BracamonteDEP
  • 58'Substitution 1 HURT. UribeHUR
  • 28'Yellow Card DEPF. MinoDEP
Model changes
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.052.18▲+0.13%
X2.802.78▼-0.02%
24.434.22▼-0.21%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home under 1.0 goals70.8%50%
46
▲+20.8pp
Away draw no betHigh Signal95Away draw no bet49.3%34%
46
▲+15.3pp
Away clean sheetHigh Signal93.2Away clean sheet45.4%31%
46
▲+14.4pp
Draw or awayHigh Signal89.9Draw or away68.3%55%
46
▲+13.3pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal89.6Home under 1.5 goals81.2%68%
46
▲+13.2pp
Home under 0.5 goals0.5Interesting84.2Home under 0.5 goals45.4%34%
46
▲+11.4pp
Under 2.0 goals2Interesting82.1Under 2.0 goals71.7%61%
46
▲+10.7pp
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting81.8Home under 2.0 goals94.6%84%
46
▲+10.6pp
Home win—Home win31.7%43%
46
▼-11.3pp
Draw—Draw37.5%34%
46
▲+3.5pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 46%model 32%▼-14pp
Xmarket 36%model 37%▲+1pp
2market 24%model 31%▲+7pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
50
Eligible
50
With a price
50
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.