GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Serie A · · 23:30
versus

Cruzeiro
Flamengo

· Referee r-pereira
11
90:00
62%
Under 2.5 goals
CR36
Draw28
FL36
Why
Cruzeiro's attack sits at the 81th percentile of the league
Flamengo has 8 declared absences
Cruzeiro has won 4 of its last 6
What could fool us
Flamengo's attack sits at the 98th percentile of the league
Cruzeiro has 8 declared absences
Flamengo has won 4 of its last 6
Flamengo has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Cruzeiro at 36%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

CRUCRU
FLAFLA
11
90:00

Live intelligence

i90'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–1, 90'
0%
CR win
100%
Draw
0%
FL win
-36ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO90'
Expected goals
0.000.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 86'Yellow Card CRUWesleyCRU
  • 86'Substitution 5 CRUMatheus HenriqueCRU
  • 83'Substitution 5 FLAPedroFLA
  • 82'Yellow Card FLABruno HenriqueFLA
  • 75'Substitution 2 CRUL. RomeroCRU
  • 75'Substitution 3 CRUK. ArroyoCRU
  • 75'Substitution 4 CRUKaio JorgeCRU
  • 72'Substitution 3 FLAE. PulgarFLA
  • 72'Substitution 4 FLALucas PaquetaFLA
  • 63'Substitution 1 FLAG. de ArrascaetaFLA
  • 63'Substitution 2 FLASamuel LinoFLA
  • 55'Normal Goal CRUK. ArroyoCRU
  • 46'Substitution 1 CRUJ. CostaCRU
  • 36'Yellow Card CRUJoao MarceloCRU
  • 22'Normal Goal FLAPedroFLA
  • 20'Yellow Card CRUFabricio BrunoCRU
Model changes
  • -16pp22' — FLA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted FLA's control of the match.
  • +14pp55' — CRU goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CRU's control of the match.
  • 0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

36%
CRU
28%
Draw
36%
FLA
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Cruzeiro's attack sits at the 81th percentile of the league
  • Flamengo has 8 declared absences
  • Cruzeiro has won 4 of its last 6

What could mislead us

  • Flamengo's attack sits at the 98th percentile of the league
  • Cruzeiro has 8 declared absences
  • Flamengo has won 4 of its last 6
  • Flamengo has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Away under 1.0 goals1Strength 95/100
Away under 1.0 goals
Model
52.7%
Market
37%
Divergence
+15.7

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 52.7%, the market at 37%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
r-pereira
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 20
#TeamPGDFormPtsIf it ends now
1PALPalmeiras20+20
WWDWW
4848
3FLAFlamengo20+13
WDWLW
4546 (+1)

The provisional column applies the competition's points rule to the current score. It is arithmetic on a scoreline, not an analysis, and it moves with every goal.

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Cruzeiro at 36%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions