Interesting🌍 Serie A · — · 23:30
versus
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
— · Referee r-pereira
1 – 1
90:00
62%
Under 2.5 goals
CR36
Draw28
FL36
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 13,15Raw implied probability31,7%Sum of the 1X2 book106,0%Operator margin removed−6,0 ptsDe-margined consensus30%Our model36.1%Measured gap+6.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—47.3%63%−15.7
Away under 1.0 goals—52.7%37%+15.7
Over 3.0 goals—22.7%35%−12.3
Under 3.0 goals—77.3%65%+12.3
Away over 1.5 goals—30%42%−12
Away under 1.5 goals—70%58%+12
Under 2.0 goals—48.6%37%+11.6
Away over 2.0 goals—12.4%24%−11.6
Away under 2.0 goals—87.6%76%+11.6
Over 2.0 goals—51.5%63%−11.5
Over 2.5 goals—37.9%48%−10.1
Under 2.5 goals—62.1%52%+10.1
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
