GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Serie A · — · 23:30
versus

Cruzeiro
Flamengo

— · Referee r-pereira
1 – 1
90:00
62%
Under 2.5 goals
CR36
Draw28
FL36
Head to head
1
CRU
2
Draw
5
FLA
août 2026FLA — CRU2 – 1
août 2026CRU — FLA1 – 1
mars 2026FLA — CRU2 – 0
oct. 2025FLA — CRU0 – 0
mai 2025CRU — FLA2 – 1
nov. 2024CRU — FLA0 – 1
juin 2024FLA — CRU2 – 1
oct. 2023CRU — FLA0 – 2

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

How the analysis moved
21/08 05h36%—
Our past analyses in this competition

No analysis has been resolved in this competition yet.

Every resolved analysis stays on display with the probability it carried, confirmed or refuted.

Competition standings
1SE Palmeiras7542+20
3CR Flamengo7335+13
Brasileirão · 01:3090'
CRUCRU
FLAFLA
—
1 – 1
90:00

Live intelligence

i90'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–1, 90'
0%
CR win
100%
Draw
0%
FL win
▼-36ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO90'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 86'Yellow Card CRUWesleyCRU
  • 86'Substitution 5 CRUMatheus HenriqueCRU
  • 83'Substitution 5 FLAPedroFLA
  • 82'Yellow Card FLABruno HenriqueFLA
  • 75'Substitution 2 CRUL. RomeroCRU
  • 75'Substitution 3 CRUK. ArroyoCRU
  • 75'Substitution 4 CRUKaio JorgeCRU
  • 72'Substitution 3 FLAE. PulgarFLA
  • 72'Substitution 4 FLALucas PaquetaFLA
  • 63'Substitution 1 FLAG. de ArrascaetaFLA
  • 63'Substitution 2 FLASamuel LinoFLA
  • 55'Normal Goal CRUK. ArroyoCRU
  • 46'Substitution 1 CRUJ. CostaCRU
  • 36'Yellow Card CRUJoao MarceloCRU
  • 22'Normal Goal FLAPedroFLA
  • 20'Yellow Card CRUFabricio BrunoCRU
Model changes
  • ▼-16pp22' — FLA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted FLA's control of the match.
  • ▲+14pp55' — CRU goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CRU's control of the match.
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Time Machine

i

What changed?

()
View full timeline

Evolution over time

i
CR winDrawFL win

Snapshot ledger

i
SnapshotPrediction IDModel versionData qualityConfidence
21/08 05hprd_20260822_af-1492344_210805hv1.9.354%36%

What would have to change

i21.7 pt span
Red card36 → 14.9-21.1
Opponent scores first36 → 33.2-2.8
Key substitution36 → 35-1
High tempo36 → 35.2-0.8
Low tempo36 → 36.6+0.6
Early goal36 → 360

No single change reverses the lean, which is what makes the headline probability worth reading.

Scenario library

i

Head to head

i
1
CR wins
2
Draws
5
FL wins
20 Aug 2026FLA — CRU2 – 1
13 Aug 2026CRU — FLA1 – 1
12 Mar 2026FLA — CRU2 – 0
3 Oct 2025FLA — CRU0 – 0
4 May 2025CRU — FLA2 – 1
7 Nov 2024CRU — FLA0 – 1
30 Jun 2024FLA — CRU2 – 1
20 Oct 2023CRU — FLA0 – 2

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

Similar matches(past meetings, as the registry holds them)

View all

Notes

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