GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 23:30
versus

Charlotte
DC United

Bank of America Stadium
3 – 1
85:00
66%
Victoire Charlotte
CH66
Draw20
UN14
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,75Raw implied probability57,1%Sum of the 1X2 book106,9%Operator margin removed−6,9 ptsDe-margined consensus53%Our model65.9%Measured gap+12.9 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—30.7%49%−18.3
Away under 1.0 goals—69.3%51%+18.3
Away over 1.5 goals—19.6%33%−13.4
Away under 1.5 goals—80.4%67%+13.4
Home clean sheet—44.3%31%+13.3
Home win—65.9%53%+12.9
Draw or away—34.1%47%−12.9
Home draw no bet—82.8%70%+12.8
Away draw no bet—17.2%30%−12.8
Away over 0.5 goals—55.7%68%−12.3
Away under 0.5 goals—44.3%32%+12.3
Both teams to score—48.7%59%−10.3

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

MLS · 01:3085'
CHACHA
UNIUNI
Bank of America Stadium
3 – 1
85:00

Live intelligence

i85'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 3–1, 85'
100%
CH win
0%
Draw
0%
UN win
▲+34ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO85'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Home side ahead of its expected goals by 2.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 83'Substitution 5 CHAA. Saint-MaximinCHA
  • 77'Normal Goal CHAP. BielCHA
  • 75'Substitution 4 CHAI. ToklomatiCHA
  • 75'Substitution 1 UNIK. NonoUNI
  • 75'Substitution 2 UNIJ. HopkinsUNI
  • 75'Substitution 3 UNIB. ServaniaUNI
  • 68'Yellow Card UNIPeglowUNI
  • 66'Normal Goal CHAW. ClearyCHA
  • 65'Substitution 1 CHAL. de la TorreCHA
  • 65'Substitution 2 CHAR. AlokoCHA
  • 65'Substitution 3 CHAA. WestwoodCHA
  • 64'Normal Goal CHAD. SchneggCHA
  • 55'Normal Goal UNIL. MunteanuUNI
  • 44'Yellow Card UNIS. HeftiUNI
  • 34'Yellow Card UNIK. KurokawaUNI
Model changes
  • ▼-16pp55' — UNI goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted UNI's control of the match.
  • ▲+14pp64' — CHA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CHA's control of the match.
  • ▲+14pp66' — CHA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CHA's control of the match.
  • ▲+14pp77' — CHA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CHA's control of the match.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.841.75▼-0.09%
X3.753.85▲+0.1%
23.854.20▲+0.35%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away under 1.0 goals69.3%51%
92
▲+18.3pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal90.2Away under 1.5 goals80.4%67%
92
▲+13.4pp
Home clean sheetHigh Signal89.9Home clean sheet44.3%31%
92
▲+13.3pp
Home winHigh Signal88.7Home win65.9%53%
92
▲+12.9pp
Home draw no betHigh Signal88.4Home draw no bet82.8%70%
92
▲+12.8pp
Away under 0.5 goals0.5High Signal86.9Away under 0.5 goals44.3%32%
92
▲+12.3pp
Both teams to score: noInteresting80.9Both teams to score: no51.3%41%
92
▲+10.3pp
Home or drawInteresting77.9Home or draw86.3%77%
92
▲+9.3pp
Draw—Draw20.4%24%
92
▼-3.6pp
Away win—Away win13.7%22%
92
▼-8.3pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 57%model 66%▲+9pp
Xmarket 26%model 20%▼-6pp
2market 24%model 14%▼-10pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
66
Eligible
66
With a price
66
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.