GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · · 23:30
versus

Charlotte
DC United

Bank of America Stadium
31
85:00
66%
Victoire Charlotte
CH66
Draw20
UN14
Why
DC United's defence sits at the 8th percentile — among the weakest
Charlotte takes 2.03 points per game at home, the opponent 0.93 away
DC United has 6 declared absences
Charlotte takes 2.03 points per game at home against 1.04 away — two different sides depending on the ground
Charlotte scores 1.9 goals per game at home
Charlotte has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
What could fool us
Charlotte has 6 declared absences
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Charlotte at 66%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

CHACHA
UNIUNI
Bank of America Stadium
31
85:00

Live intelligence

i85'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 3–1, 85'
100%
CH win
0%
Draw
0%
UN win
+34ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO85'
Expected goals
0.000.00
Home side ahead of its expected goals by 2.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 83'Substitution 5 CHAA. Saint-MaximinCHA
  • 77'Normal Goal CHAP. BielCHA
  • 75'Substitution 4 CHAI. ToklomatiCHA
  • 75'Substitution 1 UNIK. NonoUNI
  • 75'Substitution 2 UNIJ. HopkinsUNI
  • 75'Substitution 3 UNIB. ServaniaUNI
  • 68'Yellow Card UNIPeglowUNI
  • 66'Normal Goal CHAW. ClearyCHA
  • 65'Substitution 1 CHAL. de la TorreCHA
  • 65'Substitution 2 CHAR. AlokoCHA
  • 65'Substitution 3 CHAA. WestwoodCHA
  • 64'Normal Goal CHAD. SchneggCHA
  • 55'Normal Goal UNIL. MunteanuUNI
  • 44'Yellow Card UNIS. HeftiUNI
  • 34'Yellow Card UNIK. KurokawaUNI
Model changes
  • -16pp55' — UNI goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted UNI's control of the match.
  • +14pp64' — CHA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CHA's control of the match.
  • +14pp66' — CHA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CHA's control of the match.
  • +14pp77' — CHA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CHA's control of the match.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

66%
CHA
20%
Draw
14%
UNI
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • DC United's defence sits at the 8th percentile — among the weakest
  • Charlotte takes 2.03 points per game at home, the opponent 0.93 away
  • DC United has 6 declared absences
  • Charlotte takes 2.03 points per game at home against 1.04 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • Charlotte scores 1.9 goals per game at home
  • Charlotte has won 5 of the last 8 meetings

What could mislead us

  • Charlotte has 6 declared absences
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Away under 1.0 goals1Strength 95/100
Away under 1.0 goals
Model
69.3%
Market
51%
Divergence
+18.3

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 69.3%, the market at 51%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Charlotte at 66%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions