GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 23:30
versus

Charlotte
DC United

Bank of America Stadium
3 – 1
85:00
66%
Victoire Charlotte
CH66
Draw20
UN14
Head to head
5
CHA
2
Draw
1
UNI
oct. 2025UNI — CHA0 – 1
juil. 2025CHA — UNI2 – 1
mai 2025UNI — CHA2 – 2
oct. 2024UNI — CHA0 – 3
juin 2024CHA — UNI1 – 0
sept. 2023CHA — UNI0 – 0
avr. 2023UNI — CHA3 – 0
févr. 2023UNI — CHA2 – 3

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

How the analysis moved
21/08 05h66%—
Our past analyses in this competition

No analysis has been resolved in this competition yet.

Every resolved analysis stays on display with the probability it carried, confirmed or refuted.

Competition standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

MLS · 01:3085'
CHACHA
UNIUNI
Bank of America Stadium
3 – 1
85:00

Live intelligence

i85'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 3–1, 85'
100%
CH win
0%
Draw
0%
UN win
▲+34ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO85'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Home side ahead of its expected goals by 2.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 83'Substitution 5 CHAA. Saint-MaximinCHA
  • 77'Normal Goal CHAP. BielCHA
  • 75'Substitution 4 CHAI. ToklomatiCHA
  • 75'Substitution 1 UNIK. NonoUNI
  • 75'Substitution 2 UNIJ. HopkinsUNI
  • 75'Substitution 3 UNIB. ServaniaUNI
  • 68'Yellow Card UNIPeglowUNI
  • 66'Normal Goal CHAW. ClearyCHA
  • 65'Substitution 1 CHAL. de la TorreCHA
  • 65'Substitution 2 CHAR. AlokoCHA
  • 65'Substitution 3 CHAA. WestwoodCHA
  • 64'Normal Goal CHAD. SchneggCHA
  • 55'Normal Goal UNIL. MunteanuUNI
  • 44'Yellow Card UNIS. HeftiUNI
  • 34'Yellow Card UNIK. KurokawaUNI
Model changes
  • ▼-16pp55' — UNI goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted UNI's control of the match.
  • ▲+14pp64' — CHA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CHA's control of the match.
  • ▲+14pp66' — CHA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CHA's control of the match.
  • ▲+14pp77' — CHA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CHA's control of the match.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Time Machine

i

What changed?

()
View full timeline

Evolution over time

i
CH winDrawUN win

Snapshot ledger

i
SnapshotPrediction IDModel versionData qualityConfidence
21/08 05hprd_20260822_af-1490411_210805hv1.9.354%80%

What would have to change

i21.3 pt span
Red card66 → 44.9-21.1
Opponent scores first66 → 63.2-2.8
Key substitution66 → 65-1
High tempo66 → 65.7-0.3
Low tempo66 → 66.2+0.2
Early goal66 → 660

A single plausible change reverses the lean. The headline probability is more fragile than its number suggests.

Scenario library

i

Head to head

i
5
CH wins
2
Draws
1
UN wins
4 Oct 2025UNI — CHA0 – 1
17 Jul 2025CHA — UNI2 – 1
22 May 2025UNI — CHA2 – 2
21 Oct 2024UNI — CHA0 – 3
16 Jun 2024CHA — UNI1 – 0
17 Sept 2023CHA — UNI0 – 0
30 Apr 2023UNI — CHA3 – 0
1 Feb 2023UNI — CHA2 – 3

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

Similar matches(past meetings, as the registry holds them)

View all

Notes

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