GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · · 23:30
versus

Orlando City SC
Real Salt Lake

Exploria Stadium
11
81:00
60%
Over 2.5 goals
OR56
Draw22
SA22
Why
Orlando City SC's attack sits at the 72th percentile of the league
Orlando City SC takes 1.62 points per game at home, the opponent 0.73 away
Real Salt Lake has 12 declared absences
Orlando City SC scores 2 goals per game at home
What could fool us
Orlando City SC's defence sits at the 5th percentile — among the weakest
Orlando City SC has 8 declared absences
3 draws in the last 7 meetings — a historically tight fixture
Real Salt Lake takes 1.85 points per game at home against 0.73 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Orlando City SC at 56%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

ORLORL
SALSAL
Exploria Stadium
11
81:00

Live intelligence

i81'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–1, 81'
16%
OR win
75%
Draw
9%
SA win
-40ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO81'
Expected goals
0.000.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 77'Substitution 5 SALA. KatranisSAL
  • 71'Yellow Card SALK. HenrySAL
  • 69'Substitution 4 ORLZ. TaifiORL
  • 67'Substitution 4 SALL. MoisaSAL
  • 62'Substitution 2 SALD. MarczukSAL
  • 62'Substitution 3 SALV. OlatunjiSAL
  • 61'Substitution 1 SALA. HezarkhaniSAL
  • 53'Normal Goal ORLA. GriezmannORL
  • 46'Substitution 1 ORLTiagoORL
  • 46'Substitution 2 ORLM. PasalicORL
  • 46'Substitution 3 ORLLuis OtavioORL
  • 45'Yellow Card SALA. KatranisSAL
  • 43'Yellow Card SALLineker RodriguesSAL
  • 36'Normal Goal SALD. MarczukSAL
Model changes
  • -16pp36' — SAL goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted SAL's control of the match.
  • +14pp53' — ORL goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted ORL's control of the match.
  • 0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

56%
ORL
22%
Draw
22%
SAL
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Orlando City SC's attack sits at the 72th percentile of the league
  • Orlando City SC takes 1.62 points per game at home, the opponent 0.73 away
  • Real Salt Lake has 12 declared absences
  • Orlando City SC scores 2 goals per game at home

What could mislead us

  • Orlando City SC's defence sits at the 5th percentile — among the weakest
  • Orlando City SC has 8 declared absences
  • 3 draws in the last 7 meetings — a historically tight fixture
  • Real Salt Lake takes 1.85 points per game at home against 0.73 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Away under 1.0 goals1Strength 95/100
Away under 1.0 goals
Model
49.8%
Market
33%
Divergence
+16.8

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 49.8%, the market at 33%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Orlando City SC at 56%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions