GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 23:30
versus

Orlando City SC
Real Salt Lake

Exploria Stadium
1 – 1
81:00
60%
Over 2.5 goals
OR56
Draw22
SA22
Head to head
2
ORL
3
Draw
2
SAL
juil. 2023SAL — ORL4 – 0
mars 2020ORL — SAL0 – 0
avr. 2019SAL — ORL2 – 1
mai 2018ORL — SAL3 – 1
juil. 2017SAL — ORL0 – 1
mars 2016ORL — SAL2 – 2
juil. 2015SAL — ORL1 – 1

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

How the analysis moved
21/08 05h56%—
Our past analyses in this competition

No analysis has been resolved in this competition yet.

Every resolved analysis stays on display with the probability it carried, confirmed or refuted.

Competition standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

MLS · 01:3081'
ORLORL
SALSAL
Exploria Stadium
1 – 1
81:00

Live intelligence

i81'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–1, 81'
16%
OR win
75%
Draw
9%
SA win
▼-40ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO81'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 77'Substitution 5 SALA. KatranisSAL
  • 71'Yellow Card SALK. HenrySAL
  • 69'Substitution 4 ORLZ. TaifiORL
  • 67'Substitution 4 SALL. MoisaSAL
  • 62'Substitution 2 SALD. MarczukSAL
  • 62'Substitution 3 SALV. OlatunjiSAL
  • 61'Substitution 1 SALA. HezarkhaniSAL
  • 53'Normal Goal ORLA. GriezmannORL
  • 46'Substitution 1 ORLTiagoORL
  • 46'Substitution 2 ORLM. PasalicORL
  • 46'Substitution 3 ORLLuis OtavioORL
  • 45'Yellow Card SALA. KatranisSAL
  • 43'Yellow Card SALLineker RodriguesSAL
  • 36'Normal Goal SALD. MarczukSAL
Model changes
  • ▼-16pp36' — SAL goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted SAL's control of the match.
  • ▲+14pp53' — ORL goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted ORL's control of the match.
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Time Machine

i

What changed?

()
View full timeline

Evolution over time

i
OR winDrawSA win

Snapshot ledger

i
SnapshotPrediction IDModel versionData qualityConfidence
21/08 05hprd_20260822_af-1490410_210805hv1.9.354%62%

What would have to change

i21.5 pt span
Red card56 → 34.9-21.1
Opponent scores first56 → 53.2-2.8
Key substitution56 → 55-1
High tempo56 → 56.4+0.4
Low tempo56 → 55.7-0.3
Early goal56 → 560

A single plausible change reverses the lean. The headline probability is more fragile than its number suggests.

Scenario library

i

Head to head

i
2
OR wins
3
Draws
2
SA wins
9 Jul 2023SAL — ORL4 – 0
1 Mar 2020ORL — SAL0 – 0
14 Apr 2019SAL — ORL2 – 1
6 May 2018ORL — SAL3 – 1
1 Jul 2017SAL — ORL0 – 1
6 Mar 2016ORL — SAL2 – 2
5 Jul 2015SAL — ORL1 – 1

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

Similar matches(past meetings, as the registry holds them)

View all

Notes

i