GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 23:30
versus

Orlando City SC
Real Salt Lake

Exploria Stadium
1 – 1
81:00
60%
Over 2.5 goals
OR56
Draw22
SA22
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,00Raw implied probability50,0%Sum of the 1X2 book105,8%Operator margin removed−5,8 ptsDe-margined consensus47%Our model56.1%Measured gap+9.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 72
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—50.2%67%−16.8
Away under 1.0 goals—49.8%33%+16.8
Away over 1.5 goals—31.9%45%−13.1
Away under 1.5 goals—68.1%55%+13.1
Away over 2.0 goals—13.9%27%−13.1
Away under 2.0 goals—86.1%73%+13.1
Over 4.0 goals—24.7%36%−11.3
Under 4.0 goals—75.3%64%+11.3
Home draw no bet—72.1%61%+11.1
Away draw no bet—27.9%39%−11.1
Over 3.0 goals—48.7%59%−10.3
Under 3.0 goals—51.3%41%+10.3

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

MLS · 01:3081'
ORLORL
SALSAL
Exploria Stadium
1 – 1
81:00

Live intelligence

i81'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–1, 81'
16%
OR win
75%
Draw
9%
SA win
▼-40ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO81'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 77'Substitution 5 SALA. KatranisSAL
  • 71'Yellow Card SALK. HenrySAL
  • 69'Substitution 4 ORLZ. TaifiORL
  • 67'Substitution 4 SALL. MoisaSAL
  • 62'Substitution 2 SALD. MarczukSAL
  • 62'Substitution 3 SALV. OlatunjiSAL
  • 61'Substitution 1 SALA. HezarkhaniSAL
  • 53'Normal Goal ORLA. GriezmannORL
  • 46'Substitution 1 ORLTiagoORL
  • 46'Substitution 2 ORLM. PasalicORL
  • 46'Substitution 3 ORLLuis OtavioORL
  • 45'Yellow Card SALA. KatranisSAL
  • 43'Yellow Card SALLineker RodriguesSAL
  • 36'Normal Goal SALD. MarczukSAL
Model changes
  • ▼-16pp36' — SAL goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted SAL's control of the match.
  • ▲+14pp53' — ORL goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted ORL's control of the match.
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.832.00▲+0.17%
X4.154.00▼-0.15%
23.603.25▼-0.35%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away under 1.0 goals49.8%33%
74
▲+16.8pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal89.3Away under 1.5 goals68.1%55%
74
▲+13.1pp
Away under 2.0 goals2High Signal89.3Away under 2.0 goals86.1%73%
74
▲+13.1pp
Under 4.0 goals4Interesting83.9Under 4.0 goals75.3%64%
74
▲+11.3pp
Home draw no betInteresting83.3Home draw no bet72.1%61%
74
▲+11.1pp
Under 3.0 goals3Interesting80.9Under 3.0 goals51.3%41%
74
▲+10.3pp
Away under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting80Away under 2.5 goals89%79%
74
▲+10pp
Home winInteresting77.3Home win56.1%47%
74
▲+9.1pp
Draw—Draw22.2%24%
74
▼-1.8pp
Away win—Away win21.7%29%
74
▼-7.3pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 50%model 56%▲+6pp
Xmarket 25%model 22%▼-3pp
2market 31%model 22%▼-9pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
72
Eligible
72
With a price
72
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.