GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · · 23:30
versus

CF Montreal
Los Angeles Galaxy

Saputo Stadium
22
84:00
64%
Both teams to score
MO33
Draw24
AN43
Why
Los Angeles Galaxy's defence sits at the 18th percentile — among the weakest
Los Angeles Galaxy has 8 declared absences
Los Angeles Galaxy concedes 2 goals per game away
What could fool us
CF Montreal's defence sits at the 15th percentile — among the weakest
CF Montreal has 8 declared absences
Los Angeles Galaxy has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

MONMON
ANGANG
Saputo Stadium
22
84:00

Live intelligence

i84'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 2–2, 84'
8%
MO win
82%
Draw
10%
AN win
-25ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO84'
Expected goals
0.000.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 82'Substitution 5 ANGR. TaylorANG
  • 81'Substitution 5 MONJ. NealMON
  • 79'Normal Goal MONP. OwusuMON
  • 72'Substitution 3 ANGJ. NelsonANG
  • 72'Substitution 4 ANGI. ParenteANG
  • 68'Red Card ANGJ. MarcinkowskiANG
  • 67'Yellow Card MONB. CraigMON
  • 62'Substitution 3 MONN. StreitMON
  • 62'Substitution 4 MOND. PereiraMON
  • 62'Substitution 1 ANGJ. PaintsilANG
  • 62'Substitution 2 ANGR. RamosANG
  • 61'Substitution 2 MOND. BugajMON
  • 48'Normal Goal ANGM. YoshidaANG
  • 46'Substitution 1 MONB. VeraMON
  • 19'Normal Goal ANGR. RamosANG
  • 16'Normal Goal MOND. RiosMON
Model changes
  • +14pp16' — MON goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted MON's control of the match.
  • -16pp19' — ANG goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted ANG's control of the match.
  • -16pp48' — ANG goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted ANG's control of the match.
  • +11pp68' — red cardNumerical advantage applied to the remaining minutes.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

33%
MON
24%
Draw
43%
ANG
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Los Angeles Galaxy's defence sits at the 18th percentile — among the weakest
  • Los Angeles Galaxy has 8 declared absences
  • Los Angeles Galaxy concedes 2 goals per game away

What could mislead us

  • CF Montreal's defence sits at the 15th percentile — among the weakest
  • CF Montreal has 8 declared absences
  • Los Angeles Galaxy has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Away draw no betStrength 95/100
Away draw no bet
Model
56.6%
Market
40%
Divergence
+16.6

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 56.6%, the market at 40%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions