GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 23:30
versus

CF Montreal
Los Angeles Galaxy

Saputo Stadium
2 – 2
84:00
64%
Both teams to score
MO33
Draw24
AN43
Head to head
1
MON
2
Draw
5
ANG
juil. 2022ANG — MON4 – 0
sept. 2019ANG — MON2 – 1
mai 2018MON — ANG0 – 1
avr. 2017ANG — MON2 – 0
mai 2016MON — ANG3 – 2
sept. 2015ANG — MON0 – 0
sept. 2014MON — ANG2 – 2
oct. 2013ANG — MON1 – 0

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

How the analysis moved
21/08 05h33%—
Our past analyses in this competition

No analysis has been resolved in this competition yet.

Every resolved analysis stays on display with the probability it carried, confirmed or refuted.

Competition standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

MLS · 01:3084'
MONMON
ANGANG
Saputo Stadium
2 – 2
84:00

Live intelligence

i84'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 2–2, 84'
8%
MO win
82%
Draw
10%
AN win
▼-25ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO84'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 82'Substitution 5 ANGR. TaylorANG
  • 81'Substitution 5 MONJ. NealMON
  • 79'Normal Goal MONP. OwusuMON
  • 72'Substitution 3 ANGJ. NelsonANG
  • 72'Substitution 4 ANGI. ParenteANG
  • 68'Red Card ANGJ. MarcinkowskiANG
  • 67'Yellow Card MONB. CraigMON
  • 62'Substitution 3 MONN. StreitMON
  • 62'Substitution 4 MOND. PereiraMON
  • 62'Substitution 1 ANGJ. PaintsilANG
  • 62'Substitution 2 ANGR. RamosANG
  • 61'Substitution 2 MOND. BugajMON
  • 48'Normal Goal ANGM. YoshidaANG
  • 46'Substitution 1 MONB. VeraMON
  • 19'Normal Goal ANGR. RamosANG
  • 16'Normal Goal MOND. RiosMON
Model changes
  • ▲+14pp16' — MON goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted MON's control of the match.
  • ▼-16pp19' — ANG goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted ANG's control of the match.
  • ▼-16pp48' — ANG goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted ANG's control of the match.
  • ▲+11pp68' — red cardNumerical advantage applied to the remaining minutes.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Time Machine

i

What changed?

()
View full timeline

Evolution over time

i
MO winDrawAN win

Snapshot ledger

i
SnapshotPrediction IDModel versionData qualityConfidence
21/08 05hprd_20260822_af-1490408_210805hv1.9.354%47%

What would have to change

i23.1 pt span
Red card43 → 21.9-21.1
Opponent scores first43 → 40.2-2.8
High tempo43 → 45+2
Low tempo43 → 41.4-1.6
Key substitution43 → 42-1
Early goal43 → 430

No single change reverses the lean, which is what makes the headline probability worth reading.

Scenario library

i

Head to head

i
1
MO wins
2
Draws
5
AN wins
5 Jul 2022ANG — MON4 – 0
22 Sept 2019ANG — MON2 – 1
21 May 2018MON — ANG0 – 1
8 Apr 2017ANG — MON2 – 0
29 May 2016MON — ANG3 – 2
13 Sept 2015ANG — MON0 – 0
11 Sept 2014MON — ANG2 – 2
17 Oct 2013ANG — MON1 – 0

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

Similar matches(past meetings, as the registry holds them)

View all

Notes

i