GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 23:30
versus

CF Montreal
Los Angeles Galaxy

Saputo Stadium
2 – 2
84:00
64%
Both teams to score
MO33
Draw24
AN43
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,10Raw implied probability47,6%Sum of the 1X2 book105,5%Operator margin removed−5,5 ptsDe-margined consensus45%Our model33.1%Measured gap−11.9 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home draw no bet—43.4%60%−16.6
Away draw no bet—56.6%40%+16.6
Away over 1.0 goals—74.3%60%+14.3
Away under 1.0 goals—25.7%40%−14.3
Away win—43.2%29%+14.2
Home or draw—56.8%71%−14.2
Away over 2.0 goals—33.9%21%+12.9
Away under 2.0 goals—66.1%79%−12.9
Home win—33.1%45%−11.9
Draw or away—66.9%55%+11.9
Away over 1.5 goals—51.4%40%+11.4
Away under 1.5 goals—48.6%60%−11.4

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

MLS · 01:3084'
MONMON
ANGANG
Saputo Stadium
2 – 2
84:00

Live intelligence

i84'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 2–2, 84'
8%
MO win
82%
Draw
10%
AN win
▼-25ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO84'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 82'Substitution 5 ANGR. TaylorANG
  • 81'Substitution 5 MONJ. NealMON
  • 79'Normal Goal MONP. OwusuMON
  • 72'Substitution 3 ANGJ. NelsonANG
  • 72'Substitution 4 ANGI. ParenteANG
  • 68'Red Card ANGJ. MarcinkowskiANG
  • 67'Yellow Card MONB. CraigMON
  • 62'Substitution 3 MONN. StreitMON
  • 62'Substitution 4 MOND. PereiraMON
  • 62'Substitution 1 ANGJ. PaintsilANG
  • 62'Substitution 2 ANGR. RamosANG
  • 61'Substitution 2 MOND. BugajMON
  • 48'Normal Goal ANGM. YoshidaANG
  • 46'Substitution 1 MONB. VeraMON
  • 19'Normal Goal ANGR. RamosANG
  • 16'Normal Goal MOND. RiosMON
Model changes
  • ▲+14pp16' — MON goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted MON's control of the match.
  • ▼-16pp19' — ANG goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted ANG's control of the match.
  • ▼-16pp48' — ANG goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted ANG's control of the match.
  • ▲+11pp68' — red cardNumerical advantage applied to the remaining minutes.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.192.10▼-0.09%
X3.653.70▲+0.05%
23.003.24▲+0.24%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away draw no betHigh Signal95Away draw no bet56.6%40%
59
▲+16.6pp
Away over 1.0 goals1High Signal92.9Away over 1.0 goals74.3%60%
59
▲+14.3pp
Away winHigh Signal92.6Away win43.2%29%
59
▲+14.2pp
Away over 2.0 goals2High Signal88.7Away over 2.0 goals33.9%21%
59
▲+12.9pp
Draw or awayInteresting85.7Draw or away66.9%55%
59
▲+11.9pp
Away over 1.5 goals1.5Interesting84.2Away over 1.5 goals51.4%40%
59
▲+11.4pp
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting79.7Home under 2.0 goals74.9%65%
59
▲+9.9pp
Away over 0.5 goals0.5Interesting77.6Away over 0.5 goals82.2%73%
59
▲+9.2pp
Home win—Home win33.1%45%
59
▼-11.9pp
Draw—Draw23.7%26%
59
▼-2.3pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 48%model 33%▼-15pp
Xmarket 27%model 24%▼-3pp
2market 31%model 43%▲+12pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
66
Eligible
66
With a price
66
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.