GRABBLESTATS
Watch🌍 Major League Soccer · · 23:30
versus

FC Cincinnati
Seattle Sounders

TQL Stadium
11
84:00
55%
Both teams to score
FC39
Draw26
SE35
Why
FC Cincinnati's attack sits at the 78th percentile of the league
FC Cincinnati takes 1.9 points per game at home, the opponent 1.11 away
Seattle Sounders has 16 declared absences
FC Cincinnati has won 4 of its last 6
Seattle Sounders has lost 6 of its last 6
FC Cincinnati scores 2 goals per game at home
What could fool us
FC Cincinnati's defence sits at the 25th percentile — among the weakest
Seattle Sounders takes 1.96 points per game at home against 1.11 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices FC Cincinnati at 39%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

FC FC
SEASEA
TQL Stadium
11
84:00

Live intelligence

i84'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–1, 84'
8%
FC win
84%
Draw
8%
SE win
-31ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO84'
Expected goals
0.000.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 83'Normal Goal SEAK. Kossa-RienziSEA
  • 77'Substitution 3 SEAA. LopezSEA
  • 77'Substitution 4 SEAO. De RosarioSEA
  • 75'Yellow Card SEAP. KingstonSEA
  • 73'Substitution 2 FC B. J. Ramirez LeonFC
  • 73'Substitution 3 FC T. BarlowFC
  • 64'Yellow Card FC B. J. Ramirez LeonFC
  • 61'Substitution 1 SEAS. BrunellSEA
  • 61'Substitution 2 SEAE. CarliSEA
  • 59'Substitution 1 FC K. MbomaFC
  • 38'Yellow Card SEAR. SailorSEA
  • 24'Normal Goal FC EvanderFC
Model changes
  • +14pp24' — FC goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted FC 's control of the match.
  • -16pp83' — SEA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted SEA's control of the match.
  • 0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

39%
FC
26%
Draw
35%
SEA
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • FC Cincinnati's attack sits at the 78th percentile of the league
  • FC Cincinnati takes 1.9 points per game at home, the opponent 1.11 away
  • Seattle Sounders has 16 declared absences
  • FC Cincinnati has won 4 of its last 6
  • Seattle Sounders has lost 6 of its last 6
  • FC Cincinnati scores 2 goals per game at home

What could mislead us

  • FC Cincinnati's defence sits at the 25th percentile — among the weakest
  • Seattle Sounders takes 1.96 points per game at home against 1.11 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Home under 2.0 goals2Strength 95/100
Home under 2.0 goals
Model
78.1%
Market
45%
Divergence
+33.1

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 78.1%, the market at 45%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices FC Cincinnati at 39%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions