GRABBLESTATS
Watch🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 23:30
versus

FC Cincinnati
Seattle Sounders

TQL Stadium
1 – 1
84:00
55%
Both teams to score
FC39
Draw26
SE35
Head to head
1
FC
1
Draw
1
SEA
mars 2023FC — SEA1 – 0
sept. 2022SEA — FC 1 – 1
mars 2019SEA — FC 4 – 1

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

How the analysis moved
21/08 05h39%—
Our past analyses in this competition

No analysis has been resolved in this competition yet.

Every resolved analysis stays on display with the probability it carried, confirmed or refuted.

Competition standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

MLS · 01:3084'
FC FC
SEASEA
TQL Stadium
1 – 1
84:00

Live intelligence

i84'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–1, 84'
8%
FC win
84%
Draw
8%
SE win
▼-31ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO84'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 83'Normal Goal SEAK. Kossa-RienziSEA
  • 77'Substitution 3 SEAA. LopezSEA
  • 77'Substitution 4 SEAO. De RosarioSEA
  • 75'Yellow Card SEAP. KingstonSEA
  • 73'Substitution 2 FC B. J. Ramirez LeonFC
  • 73'Substitution 3 FC T. BarlowFC
  • 64'Yellow Card FC B. J. Ramirez LeonFC
  • 61'Substitution 1 SEAS. BrunellSEA
  • 61'Substitution 2 SEAE. CarliSEA
  • 59'Substitution 1 FC K. MbomaFC
  • 38'Yellow Card SEAR. SailorSEA
  • 24'Normal Goal FC EvanderFC
Model changes
  • ▲+14pp24' — FC goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted FC 's control of the match.
  • ▼-16pp83' — SEA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted SEA's control of the match.
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Time Machine

i

What changed?

()
View full timeline

Evolution over time

i
FC winDrawSE win

Snapshot ledger

i
SnapshotPrediction IDModel versionData qualityConfidence
21/08 05hprd_20260822_af-1490407_210805hv1.9.354%41%

What would have to change

i21.7 pt span
Red card39 → 17.9-21.1
Opponent scores first39 → 36.2-2.8
Key substitution39 → 38-1
High tempo39 → 38.3-0.7
Low tempo39 → 39.6+0.6
Early goal39 → 390

No single change reverses the lean, which is what makes the headline probability worth reading.

Scenario library

i

Head to head

i
1
FC wins
1
Draws
1
SE wins
12 Mar 2023FC — SEA1 – 0
28 Sept 2022SEA — FC 1 – 1
3 Mar 2019SEA — FC 4 – 1

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

Similar matches(past meetings, as the registry holds them)

View all

Notes

i