GRABBLESTATS
Watch🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 23:30
versus

FC Cincinnati
Seattle Sounders

TQL Stadium
1 – 1
84:00
55%
Both teams to score
FC39
Draw26
SE35
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,62Raw implied probability61,7%Sum of the 1X2 book106,2%Operator margin removed−6,2 ptsDe-margined consensus58%Our model38.8%Measured gap−19.2 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 68
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—21.7%55%−33.3
Home under 2.0 goals—78.1%45%+33.1
Home over 1.5 goals—40.7%66%−25.3
Home under 1.5 goals—59.3%34%+25.3
Over 3.0 goals—36.8%62%−25.2
Under 3.0 goals—63.2%38%+25.2
Home over 2.5 goals—16.5%41%−24.5
Home under 2.5 goals—83.5%59%+24.5
Home under 1.0 goals—37.9%14%+23.9
Home over 1.0 goals—62.2%86%−23.8
Over 4.0 goals—16.2%39%−22.8
Under 4.0 goals—83.8%61%+22.8

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

MLS · 01:3084'
FC FC
SEASEA
TQL Stadium
1 – 1
84:00

Live intelligence

i84'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–1, 84'
8%
FC win
84%
Draw
8%
SE win
▼-31ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO84'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 83'Normal Goal SEAK. Kossa-RienziSEA
  • 77'Substitution 3 SEAA. LopezSEA
  • 77'Substitution 4 SEAO. De RosarioSEA
  • 75'Yellow Card SEAP. KingstonSEA
  • 73'Substitution 2 FC B. J. Ramirez LeonFC
  • 73'Substitution 3 FC T. BarlowFC
  • 64'Yellow Card FC B. J. Ramirez LeonFC
  • 61'Substitution 1 SEAS. BrunellSEA
  • 61'Substitution 2 SEAE. CarliSEA
  • 59'Substitution 1 FC K. MbomaFC
  • 38'Yellow Card SEAR. SailorSEA
  • 24'Normal Goal FC EvanderFC
Model changes
  • ▲+14pp24' — FC goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted FC 's control of the match.
  • ▼-16pp83' — SEA goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted SEA's control of the match.
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.831.62▼-0.21%
X4.004.50▲+0.5%
23.684.50▲+0.82%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 2.0 goals2High Signal95Home under 2.0 goals78.1%45%
53
▲+33.1pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Home under 1.5 goals59.3%34%
53
▲+25.3pp
Under 3.0 goals3High Signal95Under 3.0 goals63.2%38%
53
▲+25.2pp
Home under 2.5 goals2.5High Signal95Home under 2.5 goals83.5%59%
53
▲+24.5pp
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home under 1.0 goals37.9%14%
53
▲+23.9pp
Under 4.0 goals4High Signal95Under 4.0 goals83.8%61%
53
▲+22.8pp
Under 3.5 goals3.5High Signal95Under 3.5 goals71.3%50%
53
▲+21.3pp
Away draw no betHigh Signal95Away draw no bet47.4%27%
53
▲+20.4pp
Home win—Home win38.8%58%
53
▼-19.2pp
Draw—Draw26.3%21%
53
▲+5.3pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 62%model 39%▼-23pp
Xmarket 22%model 26%▲+4pp
2market 22%model 35%▲+13pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
68
Eligible
68
With a price
68
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.