GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🌍 Major League Soccer · · 23:30
versus

Inter Miami
Toronto FC

Nu Stadium
02
81:00
70%
Victoire Inter Miami
IN70
Draw17
TO13
Why
Inter Miami's attack sits at the 98th percentile of the league
Inter Miami takes 2.14 points per game at home, the opponent 0.84 away
Toronto FC has 12 declared absences
Inter Miami scores 2.8 goals per game at home
Inter Miami has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
What could fool us
Inter Miami's defence sits at the 35th percentile — among the weakest
Inter Miami has 12 declared absences
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Inter Miami at 70%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

INTINT
TORTOR
Nu Stadium
02
81:00

Live intelligence

i81'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 0–2, 81'
0%
IN win
2%
Draw
98%
TO win
-70ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO81'
Expected goals
0.000.00
Away side ahead of its expected goals by 2.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 77'Substitution 2 TORJ. SargentTOR
  • 74'Substitution 5 INTT. SegoviaINT
  • 73'Substitution 3 INTL. SuarezINT
  • 73'Substitution 4 INTCasemiroINT
  • 65'Substitution 1 TORD. SalloiTOR
  • 62'Normal Goal TORD. EtienneTOR
  • 59'Normal Goal TORJ. SargentTOR
  • 58'Substitution 2 INTS. ReguilonINT
  • 53'Yellow Card INTM. FalconINT
  • 37'Yellow Card TORR. LaryeaTOR
  • 26'Substitution 1 INTG. LujanINT
Model changes
  • -16pp59' — TOR goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted TOR's control of the match.
  • -16pp62' — TOR goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted TOR's control of the match.
  • 0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

70%
INT
17%
Draw
13%
TOR
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Inter Miami's attack sits at the 98th percentile of the league
  • Inter Miami takes 2.14 points per game at home, the opponent 0.84 away
  • Toronto FC has 12 declared absences
  • Inter Miami scores 2.8 goals per game at home
  • Inter Miami has won 5 of the last 8 meetings

What could mislead us

  • Inter Miami's defence sits at the 35th percentile — among the weakest
  • Inter Miami has 12 declared absences
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Under 4.0 goals4Strength 95/100
Under 4.0 goals
Model
65.3%
Market
49%
Divergence
+16.3

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 65.3%, the market at 49%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Inter Miami at 70%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions