GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 23:30
versus

Inter Miami
Toronto FC

Nu Stadium
0 – 2
81:00
70%
Victoire Inter Miami
IN70
Draw17
TO13
Head to head
5
INT
2
Draw
1
TOR
mai 2026TOR — INT2 – 4
sept. 2025TOR — INT1 – 1
avr. 2025INT — TOR1 – 1
oct. 2024TOR — INT0 – 1
août 2024INT — TOR4 – 3
juil. 2024INT — TOR3 – 1
sept. 2023INT — TOR4 – 0
mars 2023TOR — INT2 – 0

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

How the analysis moved
21/08 05h70%—
Our past analyses in this competition

No analysis has been resolved in this competition yet.

Every resolved analysis stays on display with the probability it carried, confirmed or refuted.

Competition standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

MLS · 01:3081'
INTINT
TORTOR
Nu Stadium
0 – 2
81:00

Live intelligence

i81'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 0–2, 81'
0%
IN win
2%
Draw
98%
TO win
▼-70ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO81'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Away side ahead of its expected goals by 2.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 77'Substitution 2 TORJ. SargentTOR
  • 74'Substitution 5 INTT. SegoviaINT
  • 73'Substitution 3 INTL. SuarezINT
  • 73'Substitution 4 INTCasemiroINT
  • 65'Substitution 1 TORD. SalloiTOR
  • 62'Normal Goal TORD. EtienneTOR
  • 59'Normal Goal TORJ. SargentTOR
  • 58'Substitution 2 INTS. ReguilonINT
  • 53'Yellow Card INTM. FalconINT
  • 37'Yellow Card TORR. LaryeaTOR
  • 26'Substitution 1 INTG. LujanINT
Model changes
  • ▼-16pp59' — TOR goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted TOR's control of the match.
  • ▼-16pp62' — TOR goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted TOR's control of the match.
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Time Machine

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What changed?

()
View full timeline

Evolution over time

i
IN winDrawTO win

Snapshot ledger

i
SnapshotPrediction IDModel versionData qualityConfidence
21/08 05hprd_20260822_af-1490406_210805hv1.9.354%83%

What would have to change

i22.5 pt span
Red card70 → 48.9-21.1
Opponent scores first70 → 67.2-2.8
High tempo70 → 68.3-1.7
Low tempo70 → 71.4+1.4
Key substitution70 → 69-1
Early goal70 → 700

A single plausible change reverses the lean. The headline probability is more fragile than its number suggests.

Scenario library

i

Head to head

i
5
IN wins
2
Draws
1
TO wins
9 May 2026TOR — INT2 – 4
27 Sept 2025TOR — INT1 – 1
7 Apr 2025INT — TOR1 – 1
5 Oct 2024TOR — INT0 – 1
9 Aug 2024INT — TOR4 – 3
18 Jul 2024INT — TOR3 – 1
21 Sept 2023INT — TOR4 – 0
19 Mar 2023TOR — INT2 – 0

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

Similar matches(past meetings, as the registry holds them)

View all

Notes

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