GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 23:30
versus

Inter Miami
Toronto FC

Nu Stadium
0 – 2
81:00
70%
Victoire Inter Miami
IN70
Draw17
TO13
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,33Raw implied probability75,2%Sum of the 1X2 book105,6%Operator margin removed−5,6 ptsDe-margined consensus71%Our model70.3%Measured gap−0.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 74
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 4.0 goals—34.7%51%−16.3
Under 4.0 goals—65.3%49%+16.3
Over 5.0 goals—17%32%−15
Under 5.0 goals—83%68%+15
Home over 3.0 goals—31.7%46%−14.3
Home under 3.0 goals—68.3%54%+14.3
Over 3.0 goals—60%73%−13
Under 3.0 goals—40%27%+13
Over 3.5 goals—47.1%60%−12.9
Under 3.5 goals—52.9%40%+12.9
Over 4.5 goals—28.1%41%−12.9
Under 4.5 goals—71.9%59%+12.9

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

MLS · 01:3081'
INTINT
TORTOR
Nu Stadium
0 – 2
81:00

Live intelligence

i81'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 0–2, 81'
0%
IN win
2%
Draw
98%
TO win
▼-70ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO81'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Away side ahead of its expected goals by 2.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 77'Substitution 2 TORJ. SargentTOR
  • 74'Substitution 5 INTT. SegoviaINT
  • 73'Substitution 3 INTL. SuarezINT
  • 73'Substitution 4 INTCasemiroINT
  • 65'Substitution 1 TORD. SalloiTOR
  • 62'Normal Goal TORD. EtienneTOR
  • 59'Normal Goal TORJ. SargentTOR
  • 58'Substitution 2 INTS. ReguilonINT
  • 53'Yellow Card INTM. FalconINT
  • 37'Yellow Card TORR. LaryeaTOR
  • 26'Substitution 1 INTG. LujanINT
Model changes
  • ▼-16pp59' — TOR goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted TOR's control of the match.
  • ▼-16pp62' — TOR goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted TOR's control of the match.
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.361.33▼-0.03%
X5.296.00▲+0.71%
26.957.30▲+0.35%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Under 4.0 goals4High Signal95Under 4.0 goals65.3%49%
95
▲+16.3pp
Under 5.0 goals5High Signal95Under 5.0 goals83%68%
95
▲+15pp
Home under 3.0 goals3High Signal92.9Home under 3.0 goals68.3%54%
95
▲+14.3pp
Under 3.0 goals3High Signal89Under 3.0 goals40%27%
95
▲+13pp
Under 3.5 goals3.5High Signal88.7Under 3.5 goals52.9%40%
95
▲+12.9pp
Under 4.5 goals4.5High Signal88.7Under 4.5 goals71.9%59%
95
▲+12.9pp
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal88.7Away under 1.0 goals57.9%45%
95
▲+12.9pp
Home under 4.0 goals4Interesting82.7Home under 4.0 goals86.9%76%
95
▲+10.9pp
Home win—Home win70.3%71%
95
▼-0.7pp
Draw—Draw16.9%16%
95
▲+0.9pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 75%model 70%▼-5pp
Xmarket 17%model 17%•0pp
2market 14%model 13%▼-1pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
74
Eligible
74
With a price
74
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.