GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Premier League · — · 14:00
versus

El Geish
El Mokawloon

Gehaz El Reyada El Askari Stadium
1 – 0
Full time
80%
Under 2.5 goals
TA24
Draw41
AR35
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,20Raw implied probability45,5%Sum of the 1X2 book109,2%Operator margin removed−9,2 ptsDe-margined consensus42%Our model24.1%Measured gap−17.9 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 52
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—22.2%48%−25.8
Home under 1.0 goals—77.8%52%+25.8
Home draw no bet—40.8%62%−21.2
Away draw no bet—59.2%38%+21.2
Home win—24.1%42%−17.9
Draw or away—75.9%59%+16.9
Home over 1.5 goals—14.6%31%−16.4
Home under 1.5 goals—85.4%69%+16.4
Home over 0.5 goals—48.9%65%−16.1
Home under 0.5 goals—51.1%35%+16.1
Over 2.0 goals—27.4%40%−12.6
Under 2.0 goals—72.6%60%+12.6

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

egypt-pl · 16:00
TALTAL
ARAARA
Gehaz El Reyada El Askari Stadium
1 – 0
Full time

Final result

i
Confirmed✓80%Under 2.5 goals · announced before kick-off
24%
Win TAL
what happened
41%
Draw
35%
Win ARA
24%at opening→24%at kick-off±0 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.742.20▼-0.54%
X2.652.70▲+0.05%
22.863.75▲+0.89%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home under 1.0 goals77.8%52%
57
▲+25.8pp
Away draw no betHigh Signal95Away draw no bet59.2%38%
57
▲+21.2pp
Draw or awayHigh Signal95Draw or away75.9%59%
57
▲+16.9pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Home under 1.5 goals85.4%69%
57
▲+16.4pp
Home under 0.5 goals0.5High Signal95Home under 0.5 goals51.1%35%
57
▲+16.1pp
Under 2.0 goals2High Signal87.8Under 2.0 goals72.6%60%
57
▲+12.6pp
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting84.5Home under 2.0 goals96.5%85%
57
▲+11.5pp
Away winInteresting82.7Away win34.9%24%
57
▲+10.9pp
Home win—Home win24.1%42%
57
▼-17.9pp
Draw—Draw41%34%
57
▲+7pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 45%model 24%▼-21pp
Xmarket 37%model 41%▲+4pp
2market 27%model 35%▲+8pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
52
Eligible
52
With a price
52
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.