No signal🌍 Ligue 1 · — · 15:30
versus
Stade Tunisien
CS Sfaxien
Stade Hedi-Enneifer
1 – 1
Full time
89%
Under 2.5 goals
ST26
Draw40
CS34
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,78Raw implied probability36,0%Sum of the 1X2 book109,8%Operator margin removed−9,8 ptsDe-margined consensus33%Our model25.4%Measured gap−7.6 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 44
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—13.2%35%−21.8
Under 1.0 goals—49.7%28%+21.7
Home under 1.0 goals—86.6%65%+21.6
Over 1.0 goals—50.5%72%−21.5
Over 1.5 goals—30.8%52%−21.2
Under 1.5 goals—69.2%48%+21.2
Over 2.0 goals—13.8%35%−21.2
Under 2.0 goals—86.2%65%+21.2
Both teams to score—17.7%36%−18.3
Both teams to score: no—82.3%64%+18.3
Home over 0.5 goals—39.8%58%−18.2
Home under 0.5 goals—60.2%42%+18.2
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
