GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Ligue 1 · — · 15:30
versus

ES Hammam-Sousse
US Monastirienne

—
0 – 0
Full time
68%
Under 2.5 goals
ES21
Draw26
US53
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 14,00Raw implied probability25,0%Sum of the 1X2 book109,9%Operator margin removed−9,9 ptsDe-margined consensus23%Our model21.3%Measured gap−1.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal2 / 48
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away win—52.6%44%+8.6
Home or draw—47.4%56%−8.6
Home draw no bet—28.8%37%−8.2
Away draw no bet—71.2%63%+8.2
Away over 0.5 goals—72.4%65%+7.4
Away under 0.5 goals—27.6%35%−7.4
Over 1.0 goals—82.2%75%+7.2
Under 1.0 goals—17.8%25%−7.2
Away over 1.0 goals—57.2%50%+7.2
Away under 1.0 goals—42.8%50%−7.2
Draw—26.1%33%−6.9
Home or away—73.9%67%+6.9

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

tunisia-l1 · 17:30
ESHSESHS
USMOUSMO
—
0 – 0
Full time

Final result

i
Confirmed✓68%Under 2.5 goals · announced before kick-off
21%
Win ESHS
26%
Draw
what happened
53%
Win USMO
21%at opening→21%at kick-off±0 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
14.004.00•0%
X2.772.77•0%
22.052.05•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away winInteresting75.8Away win52.6%44%
72
▲+8.6pp
Away draw no betInteresting74.6Away draw no bet71.2%63%
72
▲+8.2pp
Home win—Home win21.3%23%
72
▼-1.7pp
Draw—Draw26.1%33%
72
▼-6.9pp
Home or draw—Home or draw47.4%56%
72
▼-8.6pp
Home or away—Home or away73.9%67%
72
▲+6.9pp
Draw or away—Draw or away78.7%77%
72
▲+1.7pp
Home draw no bet—Home draw no bet28.8%37%
72
▼-8.2pp
Both teams to score—Both teams to score34.3%38%
72
▼-3.7pp
Both teams to score: no—Both teams to score: no65.7%62%
72
▲+3.7pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 25%model 21%▼-4pp
Xmarket 36%model 26%▼-10pp
2market 49%model 53%▲+4pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
48
Eligible
48
With a price
48
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.