GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🌍 Ligue 1 · — · 15:30
versus

ES Tunis
ES Sahel

Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi
Pre-match analysis
75%
Victoire ES Tunis
ES75
Draw17
ES8
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,41Raw implied probability70,9%Sum of the 1X2 book109,6%Operator margin removed−9,6 ptsDe-margined consensus65%Our model74.6%Measured gap+9.6 pp
Markets carrying a signal2 / 56
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home win—74.6%65%+9.6
Draw or away—25.4%35%−9.6
Away over 1.0 goals—10.7%19%−8.3
Away under 1.0 goals—89.3%81%+8.3
Home draw no bet—89.8%82%+7.8
Away draw no bet—10.2%18%−7.8
Both teams to score—30.2%38%−7.8
Both teams to score: no—69.8%62%+7.8
Away over 0.5 goals—36.3%44%−7.7
Away under 0.5 goals—63.7%56%+7.7
Away over 1.5 goals—7.6%15%−7.4
Away under 1.5 goals—92.4%85%+7.4

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

tunisia-l1 · 17:30
ESTEST
ESSESS
Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi · Pre-match analysis
75%
Victoire ES

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.411.41•0%
X3.903.90•0%
27.707.70•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home winInteresting78.8Home win74.6%65%
95
▲+9.6pp
Away under 1.0 goals1Interesting74.9Away under 1.0 goals89.3%81%
95
▲+8.3pp
Draw—Draw16.9%23%
95
▼-6.1pp
Away win—Away win8.5%12%
95
▼-3.5pp
Home or draw—Home or draw91.5%88%
95
▲+3.5pp
Home or away—Home or away83.1%77%
95
▲+6.1pp
Draw or away—Draw or away25.4%35%
95
▼-9.6pp
Home draw no bet—Home draw no bet89.8%82%
95
▲+7.8pp
Away draw no bet—Away draw no bet10.2%18%
95
▼-7.8pp
Both teams to score—Both teams to score30.2%38%
95
▼-7.8pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 71%model 75%▲+4pp
Xmarket 26%model 17%▼-9pp
2market 13%model 8%▼-5pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
56
Eligible
56
With a price
56
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.