High Signal🌍 Ligue 1 · — · 15:30
versus
CA Bizertin
AS Marsa
Stade 15 Octobre
Pre-match analysis
72%
Under 2.5 goals
CA47
Draw28
AS25
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,92Raw implied probability52,1%Sum of the 1X2 book109,8%Operator margin removed−9,8 ptsDe-margined consensus47%Our model47.2%Measured gap+0.2 pp
Markets carrying a signal2 / 52
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 2.0 goals—37.6%46%−8.4
Under 2.0 goals—62.4%54%+8.4
Both teams to score—32.9%41%−8.1
Both teams to score: no—67.1%59%+8.1
Home over 1.0 goals—49.3%57%−7.7
Home under 1.0 goals—50.7%43%+7.7
Home over 2.5 goals—10.6%18%−7.4
Home under 2.5 goals—89.4%82%+7.4
Over 2.5 goals—28.1%35%−6.9
Under 2.5 goals—71.9%65%+6.9
Over 5.5 goals—1.2%8%−6.8
Under 5.5 goals—98.8%92%+6.8
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
