GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Pro League · — · 18:00
versus

Al-Ahli Jeddah
Abha

King Abdullah Sports City
4 – 0
Full time
92%
Victoire Al-Ahli Jeddah
AH92
Draw6
AB2
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,18Raw implied probability84,7%Sum of the 1X2 book109,8%Operator margin removed−9,8 ptsDe-margined consensus77%Our model91.7%Measured gap+14.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 70
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 3.0 goals—66.8%39%+27.8
Home under 3.0 goals—33.3%61%−27.7
Home over 3.5 goals—53.2%31%+22.2
Home under 3.5 goals—46.8%69%−22.2
Home over 4.0 goals—41.9%20%+21.9
Home under 4.0 goals—58.1%80%−21.9
Home over 2.0 goals—87.5%66%+21.5
Home under 2.0 goals—12.5%34%−21.5
Home over 2.5 goals—73.5%52%+21.5
Home under 2.5 goals—26.5%48%−21.5
Over 4.0 goals—55.6%35%+20.6
Under 4.0 goals—44.4%65%−20.6

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Saudi Pro League · 20:00
AHLAHL
ABHABH
King Abdullah Sports City
4 – 0
Full time

Final result

i
Confirmed✓92%Al-Ahli Jeddah win · announced before kick-off
92%
Win AHL
what happened
6%
Draw
2%
Win ABH
92%at opening→92%at kick-off±0 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.201.18▼-0.02%
X6.456.25▼-0.2%
210.5011.00▲+0.5%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home over 3.0 goals3High Signal95Home over 3.0 goals66.8%39%
95
▲+27.8pp
Home over 3.5 goals3.5High Signal95Home over 3.5 goals53.2%31%
95
▲+22.2pp
Home over 4.0 goals4High Signal95Home over 4.0 goals41.9%20%
95
▲+21.9pp
Home over 2.0 goals2High Signal95Home over 2.0 goals87.5%66%
95
▲+21.5pp
Home over 2.5 goals2.5High Signal95Home over 2.5 goals73.5%52%
95
▲+21.5pp
Over 4.0 goals4High Signal95Over 4.0 goals55.6%35%
95
▲+20.6pp
Over 3.0 goals3High Signal95Over 3.0 goals77.6%58%
95
▲+19.6pp
Over 3.5 goals3.5High Signal95Over 3.5 goals64.1%47%
95
▲+17.1pp
Home win—Home win91.7%77%
95
▲+14.7pp
Draw—Draw6.3%15%
95
▼-8.7pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 85%model 92%▲+7pp
Xmarket 16%model 6%▼-10pp
2market 9%model 2%▼-7pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
70
Eligible
70
With a price
70
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.