GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🇮🇹 Serie B · — · 17:00
versus

Pisa
Padova

Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani · Referee m-perri
Pre-match analysis
62%
Victoire Pisa
PI62
Draw24
PA14
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,78Raw implied probability56,2%Sum of the 1X2 book107,1%Operator margin removed−7,1 ptsDe-margined consensus52%Our model62.2%Measured gap+10.2 pp
Markets carrying a signal6 / 62
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—39.6%29%+10.6
Home under 2.0 goals—60.4%71%−10.6
Home over 1.0 goals—78.5%68%+10.5
Home under 1.0 goals—21.5%32%−10.5
Home win—62.2%52%+10.2
Home draw no bet—82.2%72%+10.2
Away draw no bet—17.8%28%−10.2
Home over 1.5 goals—55.9%46%+9.9
Home under 1.5 goals—44.1%54%−9.9
Draw or away—37.8%47%−9.2
Over 2.0 goals—66.7%58%+8.7
Under 2.0 goals—33.3%42%−8.7

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

serieb · 19:00
PISPIS
PADPAD
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani · Pre-match analysis
62%
Victoire PI

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.771.78▲+0.01%
X3.413.41•0%
24.634.64▲+0.01%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home over 2.0 goals2Interesting81.8Home over 2.0 goals39.6%29%
88
▲+10.6pp
Home over 1.0 goals1Interesting81.5Home over 1.0 goals78.5%68%
88
▲+10.5pp
Home winInteresting80.6Home win62.2%52%
88
▲+10.2pp
Home draw no betInteresting80.6Home draw no bet82.2%72%
88
▲+10.2pp
Home over 1.5 goals1.5Interesting79.7Home over 1.5 goals55.9%46%
88
▲+9.9pp
Over 2.0 goals2Interesting76.1Over 2.0 goals66.7%58%
88
▲+8.7pp
Draw—Draw24.3%27%
88
▼-2.7pp
Away win—Away win13.5%20%
88
▼-6.5pp
Home or draw—Home or draw86.5%80%
88
▲+6.5pp
Home or away—Home or away75.7%73%
88
▲+2.7pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 56%model 62%▲+6pp
Xmarket 29%model 24%▼-5pp
2market 22%model 14%▼-8pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
62
Eligible
62
With a price
62
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.