Watch🇮🇹 Serie B · — · 19:00
versus
Empoli
Cremonese
Stadio Carlo Castellani · Referee p-tremolada
1 – 0
Full time
57%
Both teams to score
EM30
Draw28
CR42
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,83Raw implied probability35,3%Sum of the 1X2 book106,9%Operator margin removed−6,9 ptsDe-margined consensus33%Our model29.4%Measured gap−3.6 pp
Markets carrying a signal2 / 62
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—67.2%58%+9.2
Away under 1.0 goals—32.8%42%−9.2
Under 2.0 goals—30%39%−9
Over 2.0 goals—69.9%61%+8.9
Away over 1.5 goals—44.9%37%+7.9
Away under 1.5 goals—55.1%63%−7.9
Over 1.5 goals—77.7%70%+7.7
Under 1.5 goals—22.3%30%−7.7
Home draw no bet—40.9%48%−7.1
Away over 0.5 goals—78.1%71%+7.1
Away under 0.5 goals—21.9%29%−7.1
Home clean sheet—21.9%29%−7.1
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
