GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🇮🇹 Serie B · — · 19:00
versus

Cesena
Sampdoria

Stadio Dino Manuzzi · Referee j-l-sacchi
Pre-match analysis
64%
Under 2.5 goals
CE41
Draw33
SA26
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,54Raw implied probability39,4%Sum of the 1X2 book106,5%Operator margin removed−6,5 ptsDe-margined consensus37%Our model41.3%Measured gap+4.3 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 62
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—36.4%56%−19.6
Away under 1.0 goals—63.6%44%+19.6
Over 3.0 goals—20.4%35%−14.6
Under 3.0 goals—79.6%65%+14.6
Away over 1.5 goals—23.1%36%−12.9
Away under 1.5 goals—76.9%64%+12.9
Over 2.0 goals—49.9%62%−12.1
Under 2.0 goals—50.1%38%+12.1
Over 2.5 goals—35.6%47%−11.4
Under 2.5 goals—64.4%53%+11.4
Away over 2.0 goals—7.7%19%−11.3
Home clean sheet—40.3%29%+11.3

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

serieb · 21:00
CESCES
SAMSAM
Stadio Dino Manuzzi · Pre-match analysis
64%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.422.54▲+0.12%
X3.203.20•0%
22.902.79▼-0.11%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away under 1.0 goals63.6%44%
55
▲+19.6pp
Under 3.0 goals3High Signal93.8Under 3.0 goals79.6%65%
55
▲+14.6pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal88.7Away under 1.5 goals76.9%64%
55
▲+12.9pp
Under 2.0 goals2High Signal86.3Under 2.0 goals50.1%38%
55
▲+12.1pp
Under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting84.2Under 2.5 goals64.4%53%
55
▲+11.4pp
Home clean sheetInteresting83.9Home clean sheet40.3%29%
55
▲+11.3pp
Away under 2.0 goals2Interesting83.6Away under 2.0 goals92.2%81%
55
▲+11.2pp
Under 3.5 goals3.5Interesting81.5Under 3.5 goals83.5%73%
55
▲+10.5pp
Home win—Home win41.3%37%
55
▲+4.3pp
Draw—Draw32.7%29%
55
▲+3.7pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 39%model 41%▲+2pp
Xmarket 31%model 33%▲+2pp
2market 36%model 26%▼-10pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
62
Eligible
62
With a price
62
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.