Interesting🇮🇹 Serie B · — · 19:00
versus
Benevento
Modena
Stadio Ciro Vigorito · Referee e-manedo-mazzoni
1 – 0
Full time
66%
Under 2.5 goals
BE30
Draw34
MO36
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,40Raw implied probability41,7%Sum of the 1X2 book106,6%Operator margin removed−6,6 ptsDe-margined consensus39%Our model30.5%Measured gap−8.5 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 62
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—40.8%62%−21.2
Home under 1.0 goals—59.2%38%+21.2
Under 3.0 goals—80.9%63%+17.9
Over 3.0 goals—19.2%37%−17.8
Over 2.0 goals—48%64%−16
Under 2.0 goals—51.9%36%+15.9
Home over 2.0 goals—9.4%25%−15.6
Home under 2.0 goals—90.6%75%+15.6
Home over 1.5 goals—25.8%41%−15.2
Home under 1.5 goals—74.2%59%+15.2
Over 2.5 goals—34.2%48%−13.8
Under 2.5 goals—65.8%52%+13.8
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
