Odds · 11,25Raw implied probability80,0%Sum of the 1X2 book106,8%Operator margin removed−6,8 ptsDe-margined consensus75%Our model67.7%Measured gap−7.3 pp
8 / 64
Home over 2.0 goals—37.9%55%−17.1
Home under 2.0 goals—62.1%45%+17.1
Over 3.0 goals—26.2%43%−16.8
Under 3.0 goals—73.8%57%+16.8
Over 2.5 goals—41.4%55%−13.6
Under 2.5 goals—58.6%45%+13.6
Home over 3.0 goals—13.5%27%−13.5
Home under 3.0 goals—86.5%73%+13.5
Home over 2.5 goals—27.7%41%−13.3
Home under 2.5 goals—72.3%59%+13.3
Over 3.5 goals—20.8%34%−13.2
Under 3.5 goals—79.2%66%+13.2
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.