Interesting🇹🇷 Süper Lig · — · 18:30
versus
Göztepe
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
— · Referee b-kolak
Pre-match analysis
61%
Under 2.5 goals
GÖ50
Draw31
GE19
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,65Raw implied probability60,6%Sum of the 1X2 book106,9%Operator margin removed−6,9 ptsDe-margined consensus57%Our model49.6%Measured gap−7.4 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 3.0 goals—23.3%38%−14.7
Under 3.0 goals—76.7%62%+14.7
Home over 2.0 goals—22.8%37%−14.2
Home under 2.0 goals—77.2%63%+14.2
Home over 1.0 goals—63.3%75%−11.7
Home under 1.0 goals—36.7%25%+11.7
Over 2.5 goals—38.6%50%−11.4
Under 2.5 goals—61.4%50%+11.4
Home over 1.5 goals—41.6%53%−11.4
Home under 1.5 goals—58.4%47%+11.4
Over 2.0 goals—54.1%65%−10.9
Under 2.0 goals—45.9%35%+10.9
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
