Watch🇩🇪 2. Bundesliga · — · 16:30
versus
Eintracht Braunschweig
Hertha BSC
Eintracht-Stadion
Pre-match analysis
56%
Under 2.5 goals
EI33
Draw29
HE38
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,50Raw implied probability40,0%Sum of the 1X2 book107,2%Operator margin removed−7,2 ptsDe-margined consensus37%Our model33.4%Measured gap−3.6 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 68
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 3.0 goals—29.4%43%−13.6
Under 3.0 goals—70.6%57%+13.6
Home over 1.0 goals—51.8%64%−12.2
Home under 1.0 goals—48.2%36%+12.2
Over 3.5 goals—23.2%35%−11.8
Under 3.5 goals—76.8%65%+11.8
Home over 2.0 goals—14.8%26%−11.2
Home under 2.0 goals—85.2%74%+11.2
Over 2.5 goals—44.4%55%−10.6
Under 2.5 goals—55.6%45%+10.6
Under 4.0 goals—88.3%78%+10.3
Over 4.0 goals—11.8%22%−10.2
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
