GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Primeira Liga · — · 14:30
versus

Vitória SC
Nacional

— · Referee p-ramalho
Pre-match analysis
59%
Under 2.5 goals
GU46
Draw27
NA27
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,70Raw implied probability58,8%Sum of the 1X2 book106,1%Operator margin removed−6,1 ptsDe-margined consensus55%Our model45.7%Measured gap−9.3 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—20.6%35%−14.4
Home under 2.0 goals—79.4%65%+14.4
Home over 1.0 goals—60.5%74%−13.5
Home under 1.0 goals—39.5%26%+13.5
Home over 1.5 goals—39.4%52%−12.6
Home under 1.5 goals—60.6%48%+12.6
Home over 2.5 goals—15.7%27%−11.3
Home under 2.5 goals—84.3%73%+11.3
Home draw no bet—62.6%73%−10.4
Away draw no bet—37.4%27%+10.4
Over 3.0 goals—26.3%36%−9.7
Under 3.0 goals—73.7%64%+9.7

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Primeira Liga · 16:30
GUIGUI
NACNAC
— · Pre-match analysis
59%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.691.70▲+0.01%
X3.703.75▲+0.05%
24.804.85▲+0.05%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 2.0 goals2High Signal93.2Home under 2.0 goals79.4%65%
59
▲+14.4pp
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal90.5Home under 1.0 goals39.5%26%
59
▲+13.5pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal87.8Home under 1.5 goals60.6%48%
59
▲+12.6pp
Home under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting83.9Home under 2.5 goals84.3%73%
59
▲+11.3pp
Away draw no betInteresting81.2Away draw no bet37.4%27%
59
▲+10.4pp
Under 3.0 goals3Interesting79.1Under 3.0 goals73.7%64%
59
▲+9.7pp
Draw or awayInteresting77.9Draw or away54.3%45%
59
▲+9.3pp
Home under 3.0 goals3Interesting75.2Home under 3.0 goals94.4%86%
59
▲+8.4pp
Home win—Home win45.7%55%
59
▼-9.3pp
Draw—Draw27%25%
59
▲+2pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 59%model 46%▼-13pp
Xmarket 27%model 27%•0pp
2market 21%model 27%▲+6pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
64
Eligible
64
With a price
64
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.