High Signal🌍 Primeira Liga · — · 19:30
versus
Sporting CP
Alverca
— · Referee f-verissimo
1 – 0
Full time
87%
Victoire Sporting CP
SP87
Draw9
AL4
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,22Raw implied probability82,0%Sum of the 1X2 book105,6%Operator margin removed−5,6 ptsDe-margined consensus78%Our model86.5%Measured gap+8.5 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 70
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home under 2.0 goals—23.8%37%−13.2
Home over 2.0 goals—76.1%63%+13.1
Home over 3.0 goals—47.9%35%+12.9
Home under 3.0 goals—52.1%65%−12.9
Home over 2.5 goals—59.6%48%+11.6
Home under 2.5 goals—40.4%52%−11.6
Draw or away—13.5%24%−10.5
Over 3.0 goals—62.9%53%+9.9
Under 3.0 goals—37.3%47%−9.7
Home over 1.5 goals—81.4%72%+9.4
Home under 1.5 goals—18.6%28%−9.4
Home over 3.5 goals—37.2%28%+9.2
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
