No signal🌍 Primeira Liga · — · 17:00
versus
Estoril
Rio Ave
Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Referee c-macedo
0 – 2
Full time
63%
Over 2.5 goals
ES60
Draw20
RI20
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,95Raw implied probability51,3%Sum of the 1X2 book105,9%Operator margin removed−5,9 ptsDe-margined consensus48%Our model60.1%Measured gap+12.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—48.2%32%+16.2
Home under 2.0 goals—51.8%68%−16.2
Home over 1.5 goals—62.2%49%+13.2
Home under 1.5 goals—37.8%51%−13.2
Over 3.0 goals—51.9%39%+12.9
Under 3.0 goals—48.1%61%−12.9
Home over 1.0 goals—83.6%71%+12.6
Home under 1.0 goals—16.4%29%−12.6
Home win—60.1%48%+12.1
Over 2.0 goals—78.7%67%+11.7
Under 2.0 goals—21.3%33%−11.7
Home over 2.5 goals—35.2%24%+11.2
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
