GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Primeira Liga · · 17:00
versus

Estoril
Rio Ave

Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Referee c-macedo
02
Full time
63%
Over 2.5 goals
ES60
Draw20
RI20
Why
Estoril's attack sits at the 78th percentile of the league
Rio Ave's defence sits at the 25th percentile — among the weakest
Rio Ave has lost 4 of its last 6
What could fool us
Estoril's defence sits at the 12th percentile — among the weakest
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Estoril at 60%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

ESTEST
RIORIO
Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota
02
Full time

Final result

i
Refuted63%Over 2.5 goals · announced before kick-off
60%
Win EST
20%
Draw
20%
Win RIO
what happened
60%at opening60%at kick-off±0 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Why

  • Estoril's attack sits at the 78th percentile of the league
  • Rio Ave's defence sits at the 25th percentile — among the weakest
  • Rio Ave has lost 4 of its last 6

What could mislead us

  • Estoril's defence sits at the 12th percentile — among the weakest
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Home over 2.0 goals2Strength 95/100
Home over 2.0 goals
Model
48.2%
Market
32%
Divergence
+16.2

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 48.2%, the market at 32%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
c-macedo
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 18
#TeamPGDFormPts

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Estoril at 60%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions