GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Primeira Liga · — · 14:30
versus

Nacional
Estoril

Estádio da Madeira
2 – 0
Full time
56%
Both teams to score
NA40
Draw25
ES35
Head to head

The head-to-head record is not assembled for this fixture. Past meetings are ingested competition by competition and this one is not covered yet — an empty record would read as two clubs that never met, which is a different statement.

How the analysis moved
21/08 05h40%—
Our past analyses in this competition

No analysis has been resolved in this competition yet.

Every resolved analysis stays on display with the probability it carried, confirmed or refuted.

Competition standings
1Sporting CP7646+28
2SL Benfica7543+23
Primeira Liga · 16:30
NACNAC
ESTEST
Estádio da Madeira
2 – 0
Full time

Final result

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Refuted✕56%Both teams to score · announced before kick-off
40%
Win NAC
what happened
25%
Draw
35%
Win EST
40%at opening→40%at kick-off±0 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Time Machine

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What changed?

()
View full timeline

Evolution over time

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NA winDrawES win

Snapshot ledger

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SnapshotPrediction IDModel versionData qualityConfidence
21/08 05hprd_20260816_af-1575461_210805hv1.9.354%43%

What would have to change

i22.6 pt span
Red card40 → 18.9-21.1
Opponent scores first40 → 37.2-2.8
High tempo40 → 41.5+1.5
Low tempo40 → 38.8-1.2
Key substitution40 → 39-1
Early goal40 → 400

No single change reverses the lean, which is what makes the headline probability worth reading.

Scenario library

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Notes

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