GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇩🇪 Bundesliga · — · 13:30
versus

RB Leipzig
Borussia Mönchengladbach

Red Bull Arena
Pre-match analysis
59%
Over 2.5 goals
LE56
Draw23
MO21
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,55Raw implied probability64,5%Sum of the 1X2 book106,2%Operator margin removed−6,2 ptsDe-margined consensus61%Our model56.3%Measured gap−4.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal5 / 70
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—41.9%53%−11.1
Home under 2.0 goals—58.1%47%+11.1
Home over 3.0 goals—15.9%26%−10.1
Home under 3.0 goals—84%74%+10
Over 3.0 goals—46.5%56%−9.5
Under 3.0 goals—53.5%44%+9.5
Over 4.0 goals—23%32%−9
Under 4.0 goals—77%68%+9
Home over 2.5 goals—30.6%39%−8.4
Home under 2.5 goals—69.4%61%+8.4
Over 3.5 goals—36.1%44%−7.9
Under 3.5 goals—63.9%56%+7.9

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Bundesliga · 15:30
LEILEI
MOEMOE
Red Bull Arena · Pre-match analysis
59%
Over 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.551.55•0%
X4.454.45•0%
25.205.20•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting83.3Home under 2.0 goals58.1%47%
75
▲+11.1pp
Home under 3.0 goals3Interesting80Home under 3.0 goals84%74%
75
▲+10pp
Under 3.0 goals3Interesting78.5Under 3.0 goals53.5%44%
75
▲+9.5pp
Under 4.0 goals4Interesting77Under 4.0 goals77%68%
75
▲+9pp
Home under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting75.2Home under 2.5 goals69.4%61%
75
▲+8.4pp
Home win—Home win56.3%61%
75
▼-4.7pp
Draw—Draw22.9%21%
75
▲+1.9pp
Away win—Away win20.8%18%
75
▲+2.8pp
Home or draw—Home or draw79.2%82%
75
▼-2.8pp
Home or away—Home or away77.1%79%
75
▼-1.9pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 65%model 56%▼-9pp
Xmarket 22%model 23%▲+1pp
2market 19%model 21%▲+2pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
70
Eligible
70
With a price
70
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.