GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🇩🇪 Bundesliga · — · 13:30
versus

SV Elversberg
Bayer Leverkusen

Waldstadion Kaiserlinde
Pre-match analysis
75%
Over 2.5 goals
EL12
Draw16
BA72
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 15,00Raw implied probability20,0%Sum of the 1X2 book106,8%Operator margin removed−6,8 ptsDe-margined consensus19%Our model11.9%Measured gap−7.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 70
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away under 2.0 goals—29.9%48%−18.1
Away over 2.0 goals—70%52%+18
Away over 3.0 goals—40%24%+16
Away under 3.0 goals—60%76%−16
Away over 2.5 goals—53.4%38%+15.4
Away under 2.5 goals—46.6%62%−15.4
Over 3.0 goals—68.8%54%+14.8
Under 3.0 goals—31.2%46%−14.8
Over 4.0 goals—44.2%31%+13.2
Under 4.0 goals—55.8%69%−13.2
Away over 1.5 goals—77.2%64%+13.2
Away under 1.5 goals—22.8%36%−13.2

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Bundesliga · 15:30
ELVELV
BAYBAY
Waldstadion Kaiserlinde · Pre-match analysis
75%
Over 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
15.005.00•0%
X4.404.40•0%
21.561.56•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away over 2.0 goals2High Signal95Away over 2.0 goals70%52%
95
▲+18pp
Away over 3.0 goals3High Signal95Away over 3.0 goals40%24%
95
▲+16pp
Away over 2.5 goals2.5High Signal95Away over 2.5 goals53.4%38%
95
▲+15.4pp
Over 3.0 goals3High Signal94.4Over 3.0 goals68.8%54%
95
▲+14.8pp
Over 4.0 goals4High Signal89.6Over 4.0 goals44.2%31%
95
▲+13.2pp
Away over 1.5 goals1.5High Signal89.6Away over 1.5 goals77.2%64%
95
▲+13.2pp
Away winHigh Signal87.5Away win72.5%60%
95
▲+12.5pp
Over 3.5 goals3.5High Signal86.3Over 3.5 goals55.1%43%
95
▲+12.1pp
Home win—Home win11.9%19%
95
▼-7.1pp
Draw—Draw15.5%21%
95
▼-5.5pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 20%model 12%▼-8pp
Xmarket 23%model 16%▼-7pp
2market 64%model 72%▲+8pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
70
Eligible
70
With a price
70
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.