GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🇩🇪 Bundesliga · — · 18:30
versus

Bayern München
VfB Stuttgart

Allianz Arena
Pre-match analysis
86%
Over 2.5 goals
BA74
Draw14
ST12
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,29Raw implied probability77,5%Sum of the 1X2 book106,3%Operator margin removed−6,3 ptsDe-margined consensus73%Our model74.1%Measured gap+1.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 78
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—63.8%47%+16.8
Away under 1.0 goals—36.2%53%−16.8
Over 4.0 goals—63.9%49%+14.9
Under 4.0 goals—36.1%51%−14.9
Over 5.0 goals—42.2%29%+13.2
Under 5.0 goals—57.8%71%−13.2
Over 4.5 goals—52.3%40%+12.3
Under 4.5 goals—47.7%60%−12.3
Over 3.0 goals—83.1%71%+12.1
Under 3.0 goals—16.9%29%−12.1
Over 3.5 goals—70.5%59%+11.5
Under 3.5 goals—29.5%41%−11.5

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Bundesliga · 20:30
BAYBAY
STUSTU
Allianz Arena · Pre-match analysis
86%
Over 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.291.29•0%
X6.106.10•0%
28.108.10•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away over 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away over 1.0 goals63.8%47%
95
▲+16.8pp
Over 4.0 goals4High Signal94.7Over 4.0 goals63.9%49%
95
▲+14.9pp
Over 5.0 goals5High Signal89.6Over 5.0 goals42.2%29%
95
▲+13.2pp
Over 4.5 goals4.5High Signal86.9Over 4.5 goals52.3%40%
95
▲+12.3pp
Over 3.0 goals3High Signal86.3Over 3.0 goals83.1%71%
95
▲+12.1pp
Over 3.5 goals3.5Interesting84.5Over 3.5 goals70.5%59%
95
▲+11.5pp
Over 5.5 goals5.5Interesting82.4Over 5.5 goals34.8%24%
95
▲+10.8pp
Away over 1.5 goals1.5Interesting80Away over 1.5 goals42%32%
95
▲+10pp
Home win—Home win74.1%73%
95
▲+1.1pp
Draw—Draw13.5%15%
95
▼-1.5pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 78%model 74%▼-4pp
Xmarket 16%model 14%▼-2pp
2market 12%model 12%•0pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
78
Eligible
78
With a price
78
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.