Interesting🇪🇸 La Liga · — · 19:30
versus
Celta Vigo
Athletic Club
—
Pre-match analysis
61%
Victoire Celta Vigo
CE61
Draw20
BI19
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,34Raw implied probability42,7%Sum of the 1X2 book105,6%Operator margin removed−5,6 ptsDe-margined consensus40%Our model61.1%Measured gap+21.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 34
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home win—61.1%40%+21.1
Draw or away—38.9%59%−20.1
Home over 1.5 goals—58.9%39%+19.9
Home under 1.5 goals—41.1%61%−19.9
Home draw no bet—76.9%58%+18.9
Away draw no bet—23.3%42%−18.7
Home over 2.5 goals—31.9%17%+14.9
Home under 2.5 goals—68.1%83%−14.9
Home over 0.5 goals—86.2%73%+13.2
Home under 0.5 goals—13.8%27%−13.2
Over 2.5 goals—56.8%44%+12.8
Under 2.5 goals—43.2%56%−12.8
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
