GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇪🇸 La Liga · — · 17:30
versus

Valencia
Celta Vigo

Estadio de Mestalla
0 – 0
Full time
54%
Both teams to score
VA47
Draw24
CE29
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,49Raw implied probability40,2%Sum of the 1X2 book104,5%Operator margin removed−4,5 ptsDe-margined consensus38%Our model46.8%Measured gap+8.8 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 60
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—68.8%56%+12.8
Home under 1.0 goals—31.2%44%−12.8
Over 2.0 goals—67.6%56%+11.6
Under 2.0 goals—32.4%44%−11.6
Home over 1.5 goals—46.3%37%+9.3
Home under 1.5 goals—53.7%63%−9.3
Home win—46.8%38%+8.8
Home over 2.0 goals—27.8%19%+8.8
Home under 2.0 goals—72.2%81%−8.8
Over 3.0 goals—37.7%29%+8.7
Under 3.0 goals—62.3%71%−8.7
Over 2.5 goals—51.5%43%+8.5

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

La Liga · 19:30
VALVAL
CELCEL
Estadio de Mestalla
0 – 0
Full time

Final result

i
Refuted✕54%Both teams to score · announced before kick-off
47%
Win VAL
24%
Draw
what happened
29%
Win CEL
43%at opening→47%at kick-off+4 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.332.49▲+0.16%
X3.203.20•0%
23.223.02▼-0.2%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home over 1.0 goals1High Signal88.4Home over 1.0 goals68.8%56%
63
▲+12.8pp
Over 2.0 goals2Interesting84.8Over 2.0 goals67.6%56%
63
▲+11.6pp
Home over 1.5 goals1.5Interesting77.9Home over 1.5 goals46.3%37%
63
▲+9.3pp
Home winInteresting76.4Home win46.8%38%
63
▲+8.8pp
Home over 2.0 goals2Interesting76.4Home over 2.0 goals27.8%19%
63
▲+8.8pp
Over 3.0 goals3Interesting76.1Over 3.0 goals37.7%29%
63
▲+8.7pp
Over 2.5 goals2.5Interesting75.5Over 2.5 goals51.5%43%
63
▲+8.5pp
Over 1.5 goals1.5Interesting74.9Over 1.5 goals75.3%67%
63
▲+8.3pp
Draw—Draw24.1%30%
63
▼-5.9pp
Away win—Away win29.1%32%
63
▼-2.9pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 40%model 47%▲+7pp
Xmarket 31%model 24%▼-7pp
2market 33%model 29%▼-4pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
60
Eligible
60
With a price
60
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.