No signal🇪🇸 La Liga · — · 19:30
versus
Espanyol
Real Madrid
RCDE Stadium
1 – 1
Full time
56%
Victoire Real Madrid
ES21
Draw23
RE56
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 17,20Raw implied probability13,9%Sum of the 1X2 book104,8%Operator margin removed−4,8 ptsDe-margined consensus13%Our model20.7%Measured gap+7.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 2.0 goals—31.2%50%−18.8
Away under 2.0 goals—68.8%50%+18.8
Away over 1.5 goals—49.2%63%−13.8
Away over 2.5 goals—23%36%−13
Away under 2.5 goals—77%64%+13
Over 3.0 goals—32.1%45%−12.9
Under 3.0 goals—67.9%55%+12.9
Away under 1.5 goals—50.8%38%+12.8
Away over 3.0 goals—10%22%−12
Away under 3.0 goals—90%78%+12
Away over 1.0 goals—72%83%−11
Away under 1.0 goals—28%17%+11
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
