GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🇪🇸 La Liga · — · 19:30
versus

Elche
Barcelona

—
Pre-match analysis
62%
Over 2.5 goals
EL19
Draw19
BA62
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 18,50Raw implied probability11,8%Sum of the 1X2 book104,3%Operator margin removed−4,3 ptsDe-margined consensus11%Our model18.7%Measured gap+7.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 72
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 2.0 goals—48.9%62%−13.1
Away under 2.0 goals—51.1%39%+12.1
Home over 1.0 goals—46%34%+12
Home under 1.0 goals—54%66%−12
Away over 3.0 goals—20.5%32%−11.5
Away under 3.0 goals—79.5%68%+11.5
Away over 2.5 goals—35.7%46%−10.3
Away under 2.5 goals—64.3%54%+10.3
Away win—61.9%72%−10.1
Home or draw—38.1%28%+10.1
Away over 3.5 goals—16.6%26%−9.4
Away under 3.5 goals—83.4%74%+9.4

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

La Liga · 21:30
ELCELC
BARBAR
— · Pre-match analysis
62%
Over 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
18.508.50•0%
X5.305.75▲+0.45%
21.331.33•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 2.0 goals2High Signal86.3Away under 2.0 goals51.1%39%
83
▲+12.1pp
Home over 1.0 goals1High Signal86Home over 1.0 goals46%34%
83
▲+12pp
Away under 3.0 goals3Interesting84.5Away under 3.0 goals79.5%68%
83
▲+11.5pp
Away under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting80.9Away under 2.5 goals64.3%54%
83
▲+10.3pp
Home or drawInteresting80.3Home or draw38.1%28%
83
▲+10.1pp
Away under 3.5 goals3.5Interesting78.2Away under 3.5 goals83.4%74%
83
▲+9.4pp
Home draw no betInteresting77.6Home draw no bet23.2%14%
83
▲+9.2pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5Interesting74.9Away under 1.5 goals37.3%29%
83
▲+8.3pp
Home win—Home win18.7%11%
83
▲+7.7pp
Draw—Draw19.5%17%
83
▲+2.5pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 12%model 19%▲+7pp
Xmarket 17%model 19%▲+2pp
2market 75%model 62%▼-13pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
72
Eligible
72
With a price
72
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.