Interesting🇪🇸 La Liga · — · 15:00
versus
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
Metropolitano Stadium
Pre-match analysis
67%
Over 2.5 goals
AT45
Draw22
VI33
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,87Raw implied probability53,5%Sum of the 1X2 book104,9%Operator margin removed−4,9 ptsDe-margined consensus51%Our model45.2%Measured gap−5.8 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away under 1.0 goals—30.7%54%−23.3
Away over 1.0 goals—69.1%46%+23.1
Over 3.0 goals—57.4%38%+19.4
Under 3.0 goals—42.6%62%−19.4
Away over 1.5 goals—46.6%30%+16.6
Away under 1.5 goals—53.4%70%−16.6
Over 2.5 goals—66.7%51%+15.7
Under 2.5 goals—33.3%49%−15.7
Away over 2.0 goals—28.3%13%+15.3
Away under 2.0 goals—71.9%87%−15.1
Over 2.0 goals—81.9%67%+14.9
Under 2.0 goals—18.1%33%−14.9
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
