GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🇪🇸 La Liga · · 15:00
versus

Atletico Madrid
Villarreal

Metropolitano Stadium
Pre-match analysis
67%
Over 2.5 goals
AT45
Draw22
VI33
Why
Atletico Madrid's attack sits at the 83th percentile of the league
Atletico Madrid takes 2.46 points per game at home, the opponent 1.5 away
Atletico Madrid takes 2.46 points per game at home against 1.19 away — two different sides depending on the ground
Atletico Madrid has won 4 of its last 6
Atletico Madrid scores 2.3 goals per game at home
What could fool us
Villarreal's attack sits at the 88th percentile of the league
Villarreal takes 2.31 points per game at home against 1.5 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Atletico Madrid at 45%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

ATMATM
VILVIL
Metropolitano Stadium · Pre-match analysis
67%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
ATM
22%
Draw
33%
VIL
▼ −13 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Atletico Madrid's attack sits at the 83th percentile of the league
  • Atletico Madrid takes 2.46 points per game at home, the opponent 1.5 away
  • Atletico Madrid takes 2.46 points per game at home against 1.19 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • Atletico Madrid has won 4 of its last 6
  • Atletico Madrid scores 2.3 goals per game at home

What could mislead us

  • Villarreal's attack sits at the 88th percentile of the league
  • Villarreal takes 2.31 points per game at home against 1.5 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Away over 1.0 goals1Strength 95/100
Away over 1.0 goals
Model
69.1%
Market
46%
Divergence
+23.1

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 69.1%, the market at 46%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 21
#TeamPGDFormPts

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Atletico Madrid at 45%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions