GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇪🇸 La Liga · — · 15:00
versus

Athletic Club
Sevilla

San Mamés
1 – 3
Full time
52%
Both teams to score
BI49
Draw24
SE27
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,73Raw implied probability57,8%Sum of the 1X2 book104,6%Operator margin removed−4,6 ptsDe-margined consensus55%Our model49.2%Measured gap−5.8 pp
Markets carrying a signal6 / 62
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—46.3%30%+16.3
Away under 1.0 goals—53.7%70%−16.3
Home clean sheet—34%46%−12
Away over 0.5 goals—66%55%+11
Away under 0.5 goals—34%45%−11
Home draw no bet—64.9%74%−9.1
Away draw no bet—35.1%26%+9.1
Away win—26.6%18%+8.6
Over 2.0 goals—65.3%57%+8.3
Under 2.0 goals—34.7%43%−8.3
Away over 1.5 goals—29.3%21%+8.3
Away under 1.5 goals—70.7%79%−8.3

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

La Liga · 17:00
BILBIL
SEVSEV
San Mamés
1 – 3
Full time

Final result

i
Confirmed✓52%Both teams to score · announced before kick-off
49%
Win BIL
24%
Draw
27%
Win SEV
what happened
57%at opening→49%at kick-off−8 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.731.73•0%
X3.603.60•0%
25.135.25▲+0.12%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away over 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away over 1.0 goals46.3%30%
65
▲+16.3pp
Away over 0.5 goals0.5Interesting83Away over 0.5 goals66%55%
65
▲+11pp
Away draw no betInteresting77.3Away draw no bet35.1%26%
65
▲+9.1pp
Away winInteresting75.8Away win26.6%18%
65
▲+8.6pp
Over 2.0 goals2Interesting74.9Over 2.0 goals65.3%57%
65
▲+8.3pp
Away over 1.5 goals1.5Interesting74.9Away over 1.5 goals29.3%21%
65
▲+8.3pp
Home win—Home win49.2%55%
65
▼-5.8pp
Draw—Draw24.2%27%
65
▼-2.8pp
Home or draw—Home or draw73.4%81%
65
▼-7.6pp
Home or away—Home or away75.8%74%
65
▲+1.8pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 58%model 49%▼-9pp
Xmarket 28%model 24%▼-4pp
2market 19%model 27%▲+8pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
62
Eligible
62
With a price
62
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.